SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$102.85

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 81.5¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,778

Combined PnL-$86.76

Under5 traders

Total Value$470.7

Total Shares2,571

Combined PnL+$189.61

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 90.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.93	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 91¢	$531.92	$397.08	-$54.49	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AN Anon455	Overavg 87¢	$224.73	$210.52	-$14.21	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 11.8¢	$108.7	$170.09	+$61.39	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 13¢	$105.64	$150.33	+$44.69	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 6.6¢	$39.16	$110.57	+$71.41	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 12.6¢	$25.69	$37.6	+$11.92	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 95¢	$14.97	$14.15	-$0.07	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 95¢	$11.15	$10.54	-$0.06	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$38.2	$2.1	+$0.19	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,036.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$17.93

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$531.92

Value

$397.08

PnL

-$54.49

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$224.73

Value

$210.52

PnL

-$14.21

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$108.7

Value

$170.09

PnL

+$61.39

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$105.64

Value

$150.33

PnL

+$44.69

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$39.16

Value

$110.57

PnL

+$71.41

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.69

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$11.92

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$14.97

Value

$14.15

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$11.15

Value

$10.54

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.2

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.