Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
-$54.14
35.4¢ → 33.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $775.29 | $710.68 | -$53.84 | 51% 26319-24948 (51267) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 34.5¢ | $355.49 | $180.08 | +$2.4 | 58% 47054-33937 (80991) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $68.77 | $68.77 | +$1.04 | 64% 10093-5697 (15790) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $68.76 | $68.76 | -$0 | 64% 10069-5627 (15696) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $54 | $49.5 | -$3.75 | 48% 61878-66736 (128614) |
Invested
$775.29
Value
$710.68
PnL
-$53.84
Record
51%
26319-24948 (51267)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$355.49
Value
$180.08
PnL
+$2.4
Record
58%
47054-33937 (80991)
Invested
$68.77
Value
$68.77
PnL
+$1.04
Record
64%
10093-5697 (15790)
Invested
$68.76
Value
$68.76
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
10069-5627 (15696)
Invested
$54
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$3.75
Record
48%
61878-66736 (128614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.