Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 0 1. FC Union Berlin?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 30%
$1.6K
-$255.08
80.5¢ → 100¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 80¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$292.07 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $49.99 | $47.49 | +$0 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $810.4 | $40.52 | +$0 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $15.01 | $15.11 | +$0.09 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.96 | $2.45 | +$0.49 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $423.72 | $2.02 | -$421.7 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.1 | $1 | -$0.1 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $53.79 | $0.5 | -$53.3 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $43.98 | $0.4 | -$43.58 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $29.25 | $0.19 | -$29.06 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
RN1Invested
$1,171.2
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$292.07
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$49.99
Value
$47.49
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$810.4
Value
$40.52
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$15.01
Value
$15.11
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.49
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$423.72
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$421.7
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
Invested
$53.79
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$53.3
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
Invested
$43.98
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$43.58
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$29.25
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$29.06
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.