Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 88¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 8

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 87.5¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares14,132

Combined PnL-$159.91

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares17,109

Combined PnL-$922.12

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 79¢	$5.4K	$4.3K	+$26.77	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
AN Anon455	Noavg 74.3¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$140.81	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 97¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$234.41	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$39.55	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 22.1¢	$1.6K	$927.17	-$711.02	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 74.2¢	$682.79	$744.5	+$120.67	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 78.3¢	$489.29	$503.24	+$57.96	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 83.4¢	$357.61	$375.3	+$17.69	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Noavg 88¢	$356.49	$282.75	-$73.74	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$184.09	$183.04	-$1.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.6¢	$172.4	$99.7	-$72.69
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$236	$237.7	+$1.7	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$185.28	$186.45	+$0.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$50	$51.25	+$1.25
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 91¢	$240.38	$231.25	-$9.13	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$250.74	$133.51	-$117.24	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
NM NM-P	Noavg 79¢	$113.76	$114.19	+$0.43	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$66.47	$65.14	+$1.17	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$60	$25	-$35	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$44.11	$22.71	-$21.4	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$6.73	$7.65	+$0.92	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$4.38	+$0.92	52% 6029-5557 (11586)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$5,353.47

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$26.77

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Anon455

Invested

$3,198.56

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$140.81

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,210.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$234.41

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,661.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$39.55

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,638.19

Value

$927.17

PnL

-$711.02

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

38791873984189

Invested

$682.79

Value

$744.5

PnL

+$120.67

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9X

Invested

$489.29

Value

$503.24

PnL

+$57.96

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

PT-S7

Invested

$357.61

Value

$375.3

PnL

+$17.69

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

LimousinARB<$100

Invested

$356.49

Value

$282.75

PnL

-$73.74

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Both legs:

No$184.0988¢-$1.05

Yes$172.421.6¢-$72.69

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$236

Value

$237.7

PnL

+$1.7

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

No$185.2879¢+$0.45

Yes$5020¢+$1.25

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$240.38

Value

$231.25

PnL

-$9.13

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.74

Value

$133.51

PnL

-$117.24

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

NM-P

Invested

$113.76

Value

$114.19

PnL

+$0.43

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.47

Value

$65.14

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$25

PnL

-$35

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.11

Value

$22.71

PnL

-$21.4

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.73

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.92

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.92

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.