Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-11-01?

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $67K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$67.2K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$67.2K

Total Shares67,682

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.2

Total Shares2,400

Combined PnL-$166.43

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Noavg 86.9¢	$33.9K	$39.0K	+$5.1K	97% 37-1 (38)
MO Momo63	Noavg 95¢	$12.9K	$13.6K	+$677.7	93% 880-63 (943)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 84.5¢	$9.7K	$8.2K	$-1.5K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 81.7¢	$3.3K	$2.1K	$-1.2K	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 83¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$47.88	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 80.5¢	$679.45	$843.15	+$163.7	62% 8225-4939 (13164)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 86.4¢	$725.35	$744.45	+$19.1	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
RN1	Noavg 98.5¢	$932.36	$528.02	-$404.34	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
FO foooool	Noavg 83¢	$127.39	$120.02	-$7.37	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$81.21	$98.27	+$17.06	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 97¢	$10.46	$10.77	+$0.32	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$40.06	$5.13	-$34.93	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$58.86	$0.45	-$58.4	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$26.76	$0.27	-$26.5	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$4.25	$0.13	-$4.13	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$25.01	$0.11	-$24.9	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$5.05	$0.08	-$4.98	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$11.7	$0.04	-$11.66	63% 1795-1071 (2866)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2	$0	-$0.94	53% 2255-1981 (4236)

999585

Invested

$33,880

Value

$39.0K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

97%

37-1 (38)

Momo63

Invested

$12,893.29

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$677.7

Record

93%

880-63 (943)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$9,713.64

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,338.03

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$1,987.09

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$47.88

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

torta.tech

Invested

$679.45

Value

$843.15

PnL

+$163.7

Record

62%

8225-4939 (13164)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$725.35

Value

$744.45

PnL

+$19.1

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

RN1

Invested

$932.36

Value

$528.02

PnL

-$404.34

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

foooool

Invested

$127.39

Value

$120.02

PnL

-$7.37

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$81.21

Value

$98.27

PnL

+$17.06

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$10.46

Value

$10.77

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.06

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$34.93

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.86

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$58.4

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.76

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$26.5

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$4.13

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.01

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$24.9

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.98

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$11.66

Record

63%

1795-1071 (2866)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.