Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: 1st Half O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$858.21

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,128

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over5 traders

Total Value$12.88

Total Shares2,961

Combined PnL-$952.23

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 75.9¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$689.54	72% 2545-973 (3518)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 39.3¢	$548.52	$1.4K	+$829.23	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
ER72SEN	Underavg 94.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$43.09	67% 316-153 (469)
RN1	Underavg 42¢	$181.03	$426.71	+$245.68	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Underavg 99¢	$350.46	$353.82	+$3.36	82% 2512-565 (3077)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 75¢	$22.11	$21.64	-$0.47	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
MY myxiCTR	Overavg 64¢	$768	$12	-$756	67% 378-183 (561)
eskilloCTR<$100	Overavg 4.2¢	$51.57	$0.62	-$50.95	42% 599-834 (1433)
TO torta.techCTR	Overavg 30¢	$143.7	$0.24	-$143.46	62% 8225-4939 (13164)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$1.45	$0.01	-$1.44	50% 652-640 (1292)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$0.39	$0.01	-$0.38	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,172.49

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$689.54

Record

72%

2545-973 (3518)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$548.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$829.23

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

ER72SEN

Under

Invested

$1,035.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$43.09

Record

67%

316-153 (469)

RN1

Under

Invested

$181.03

Value

$426.71

PnL

+$245.68

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Under

Invested

$350.46

Value

$353.82

PnL

+$3.36

Record

82%

2512-565 (3077)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$22.11

Value

$21.64

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

myxiCTR

Over

Invested

$768

Value

$12

PnL

-$756

Record

67%

378-183 (561)

eskilloCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.57

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$50.95

Record

42%

599-834 (1433)

torta.techCTR

Over

Invested

$143.7

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$143.46

Record

62%

8225-4939 (13164)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.44

Record

50%

652-640 (1292)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.