BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 33%
$4.7K
-$41.19
88.3¢ → 88¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 88.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | -$41.96 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 86.8¢ | $345.72 | $352.57 | +$6.85 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $260.44 | $260.44 | +$0 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $246.8 | $247.44 | +$0.65 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 87¢ | $136 | $138 | +$2 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $73.43 | $62.97 | -$10.46 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $41.4 | $41.4 | +$1.72 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $33.07 | $33.12 | +$0.05 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $0.18 | $0.14 | -$0.04 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
nigiri99Invested
$3,613.71
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$41.96
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$345.72
Value
$352.57
PnL
+$6.85
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$260.44
Value
$260.44
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$246.8
Value
$247.44
PnL
+$0.65
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$136
Value
$138
PnL
+$2
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$73.43
Value
$62.97
PnL
-$10.46
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$41.4
PnL
+$1.72
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$33.07
Value
$33.12
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.