Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 74¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 7

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

-$71.39

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 73.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 18 top traders (11%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares20,325

Combined PnL-$1.11

No16 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares30,121

Combined PnL-$70.28

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-79 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 74¢	$12.1K	$12.1K	-$1.11	64% 2032-1134 (3166)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 27¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$59.39	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 74¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$0	52% 384-356 (740)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 26.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$17.41	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 26.8¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$29.84	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 27¢	$614.67	$604.14	-$10.53	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 25.5¢	$472.49	$490.24	+$17.75	64% 10165-5759 (15924)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 25.1¢	$310.57	$328.27	+$17.7	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 25.8¢	$316.62	$325.01	+$8.4	64% 10163-5703 (15866)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$52	$53	+$1	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$48.2	$48.45	+$0.25	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 25.9¢	$23.5	$23.56	+$0.45	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 25.5¢	$25.5	$18.55	+$0.55	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$14.86	$15.46	+$0.59	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$13.39	$13.93	-$0.27	48% 7443-7977 (15420)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$12.49	$13.26	+$0.76	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$10.5	$10.92	-$0.21	53% 16960-15081 (32041)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.33	-$0.07	52% 8958-8128 (17086)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$12,081.9

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$1.11

Record

64%

2032-1134 (3166)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$3,477.72

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$59.39

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$2,959.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

384-356 (740)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,588.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$17.41

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$1,054.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$29.84

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$614.67

Value

$604.14

PnL

-$10.53

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$472.49

Value

$490.24

PnL

+$17.75

Record

64%

10165-5759 (15924)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$310.57

Value

$328.27

PnL

+$17.7

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$316.62

Value

$325.01

PnL

+$8.4

Record

64%

10163-5703 (15866)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$52

Value

$53

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$48.2

Value

$48.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23.56

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$18.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$15.46

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.93

PnL

-$0.27

Record

48%

7443-7977 (15420)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$12.49

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0.76

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

16960-15081 (32041)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 18 top traders (11%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-79 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.