POFC Botev Vratsa vs. PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv: O/U 2.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 61¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$14.4K
$2.6K
60.7¢ → 60.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 60.3¢ | $8.4K | $10.8K | +$2.4K | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
VI vibing123 | Underavg 61.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$27.47 | 52% 1665-1556 (3221) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 61.3¢ | $974.47 | $1.2K | +$264.54 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 62¢ | $801.87 | $776 | -$25.87 | 50% 2772-2747 (5519) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 64.3¢ | $128.5 | $120 | -$8.5 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $82.8 | $85.75 | -$1.66 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61¢ | $57.96 | $57.01 | -$0.95 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $24.84 | $28.74 | -$0.71 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $14.35 | $18.66 | +$4.31 | 50% 21541-21839 (43380) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $10 | $9.37 | -$0.62 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
Invested
$8,417.5
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$1,400.87
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$27.47
Record
52%
1665-1556 (3221)
Invested
$974.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$264.54
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$801.87
Value
$776
PnL
-$25.87
Record
50%
2772-2747 (5519)
VeryLucky888Invested
$128.5
Value
$120
PnL
-$8.5
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$82.8
Value
$85.75
PnL
-$1.66
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.35
Value
$18.66
PnL
+$4.31
Record
50%
21541-21839 (43380)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.37
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.