Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

$834.85

Smart Money Signal

51 of 73 top traders (70%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%45 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up51 traders

Total Value$29.9K

Total Shares29,861

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Down22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,143

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$7.7K	+$133.16	55% 519-424 (943)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$14.1	43% 356-475 (831)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$208.88	45% 642-794 (1436)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 960-7 (967)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 64.5¢	$711.6	$1.1K	+$391.17	49% 2514-2591 (5105)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$13.1	52% 3882-3606 (7488)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66¢	$651.86	$766.92	+$115.06	59% 1168-817 (1985)
BO bosona	Upavg 77.1¢	$513.65	$651.99	+$138.35	51% 4926-4695 (9621)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 61.4¢	$529.99	$551.62	+$21.63	47% 1183-1316 (2499)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 76.3¢	$454.71	$525.64	+$70.93	51% 2193-2101 (4294)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 54.4¢	$610.22	$503.1	+$1.12	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
MO mo-money	Upavg 58¢	$290	$500	+$210	52% 1680-1572 (3252)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.2¢	$349.04	$355.57	+$6.53	98% 4530-94 (4624)
ST stepahead	Upavg 58.4¢	$336.94	$349.8	+$12.87	55% 4624-3730 (8354)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 53.7¢	$187	$348.34	+$161.34	19% 39-162 (201)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81¢	$348.07	$341.39	-$6.67	52% 5200-4875 (10075)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 61¢	$327.01	$337.78	+$10.78	51% 2557-2416 (4973)
AL almach	Upavg 78¢	$241.09	$305.59	+$64.51	51% 1669-1583 (3252)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76.3¢	$256.54	$300.1	+$43.56	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 62.2¢	$226.78	$237.23	+$10.45	49% 3629-3731 (7360)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 68.7¢	$209.7	$212.86	+$3.16	35% 827-1570 (2397)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.5¢	$184.01	$195	+$18.4	45% 886-1064 (1950)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 26.1¢	$267.01	—	-$246.61	44% 847-1065 (1912)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 39.6¢	$483.1	—	-$483.1	47% 1193-1328 (2521)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 81.7¢	$121.62	$108.78	+$8.56	59% 1109-774 (1883)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,696

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$133.16

Record

55%

519-424 (943)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$14.1

Record

43%

356-475 (831)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$208.88

Record

45%

642-794 (1436)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

960-7 (967)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$711.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$391.17

Record

49%

2514-2591 (5105)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$13.1

Record

52%

3882-3606 (7488)

Bonereaper

Invested

$651.86

Value

$766.92

PnL

+$115.06

Record

59%

1168-817 (1985)

bosona

Invested

$513.65

Value

$651.99

PnL

+$138.35

Record

51%

4926-4695 (9621)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$529.99

Value

$551.62

PnL

+$21.63

Record

47%

1183-1316 (2499)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$454.71

Value

$525.64

PnL

+$70.93

Record

51%

2193-2101 (4294)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$610.22

Value

$503.1

PnL

+$1.12

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

mo-money

Invested

$290

Value

$500

PnL

+$210

Record

52%

1680-1572 (3252)

hoodquant

Invested

$349.04

Value

$355.57

PnL

+$6.53

Record

98%

4530-94 (4624)

stepahead

Invested

$336.94

Value

$349.8

PnL

+$12.87

Record

55%

4624-3730 (8354)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$187

Value

$348.34

PnL

+$161.34

Record

19%

39-162 (201)

blue.birds

Invested

$348.07

Value

$341.39

PnL

-$6.67

Record

52%

5200-4875 (10075)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$327.01

Value

$337.78

PnL

+$10.78

Record

51%

2557-2416 (4973)

almach

Invested

$241.09

Value

$305.59

PnL

+$64.51

Record

51%

1669-1583 (3252)

asdcaxz

Invested

$256.54

Value

$300.1

PnL

+$43.56

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$226.78

Value

$237.23

PnL

+$10.45

Record

49%

3629-3731 (7360)

ply-pm0

Invested

$209.7

Value

$212.86

PnL

+$3.16

Record

35%

827-1570 (2397)

GoodFallen

Invested

$184.01

Value

$195

PnL

+$18.4

Record

45%

886-1064 (1950)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$267.01

Value

—

PnL

-$246.61

Record

44%

847-1065 (1912)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$483.1

Value

—

PnL

-$483.1

Record

47%

1193-1328 (2521)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$121.62

Value

$108.78

PnL

+$8.56

Record

59%

1109-774 (1883)

Smart Money Signal

51 of 73 top traders (70%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%45 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb55ead31...028018

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794764400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.7K

+$133.16

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$14.1

machine-earning

Up — $3.8K

+$208.88

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.1K

+$391.17

soswald1

Up — $950

+$13.1

Bonereaper

Up — $766.92

+$115.06

bosona

Up — $651.99

+$138.35

CrouchPredictions

Up — $551.62

+$21.63

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $525.64

+$70.93

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