Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Up 68%
3 arb excluded
$16.9K
$-4.6K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 56 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%41 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 40% 210-321 (531) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.18 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 51% 1306-1242 (2548) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 95¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$115.52 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
 MaoZeDonK | Upavg 52.5¢ | $500 | $952.34 | +$452.34 | 53% 31-28 (59) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $866.47 | $876.74 | +$10.27 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $537.28 | $490.74 | -$13.92 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.6¢ | $253.23 | $490.74 | +$242.59 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.1¢ | $252.59 | — | -$256.51 | |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99¢ | $396 | $400 | +$4 | 48% 1389-1500 (2889) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 86¢ | $386.12 | $369.79 | -$7.12 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 72.9¢ | $390.21 | $365.16 | -$25.05 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $389.2 | $251.5 | -$137.7 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.9¢ | $201.06 | $251.5 | +$50.44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.7¢ | $188.14 | — | -$188.14 | |
AL almach | Upavg 98.7¢ | $218.23 | $208.86 | -$9.37 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 90.3¢ | $222.68 | $197.08 | -$25.6 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 79¢ | $225.19 | $167.49 | -$57.71 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 31.5¢ | $163.37 | — | -$163.37 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $98.43 | $94.64 | -$3.79 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $122.75 | $62.32 | -$52.63 | 57% 213-160 (373) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.5¢ | $63.82 | — | -$69.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.2¢ | $44.99 | $62.32 | +$17.33 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 79.8¢ | $77.24 | $81.89 | +$4.65 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 72.8¢ | $72.75 | $100 | +$27.25 | 50% 3793-3736 (7529) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 89.8¢ | $73.97 | $56.92 | -$17.06 | 59% 914-623 (1537) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $41.56 | $51.96 | +$10.4 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $35.93 | $51.69 | +$15.76 | 40% 700-1069 (1769) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $72.23 | $50 | -$6.46 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $53.95 | $49.95 | -$4 | 51% 716-697 (1413) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,284.82
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.18
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
51%
1306-1242 (2548)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$2,207.39
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$115.52
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
MaoZeDonKInvested
$500
Value
$952.34
PnL
+$452.34
Record
53%
31-28 (59)
Invested
$866.47
Value
$876.74
PnL
+$10.27
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
Invested
$537.28
Value
$490.74
PnL
-$13.92
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$396
Value
$400
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
1389-1500 (2889)
Invested
$386.12
Value
$369.79
PnL
-$7.12
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$390.21
Value
$365.16
PnL
-$25.05
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$389.2
Value
$251.5
PnL
-$137.7
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.23
Value
$208.86
PnL
-$9.37
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$222.68
Value
$197.08
PnL
-$25.6
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$225.19
Value
$167.49
PnL
-$57.71
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$163.37
Value
—
PnL
-$163.37
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$98.43
Value
$94.64
PnL
-$3.79
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$122.75
Value
$62.32
PnL
-$52.63
Record
57%
213-160 (373)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$77.24
Value
$81.89
PnL
+$4.65
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$72.75
Value
$100
PnL
+$27.25
Record
50%
3793-3736 (7529)
Invested
$73.97
Value
$56.92
PnL
-$17.06
Record
59%
914-623 (1537)
Invested
$41.56
Value
$51.96
PnL
+$10.4
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$35.93
Value
$51.69
PnL
+$15.76
Record
40%
700-1069 (1769)
Invested
$72.23
Value
$50
PnL
-$6.46
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$53.95
Value
$49.95
PnL
-$4
Record
51%
716-697 (1413)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.3K
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.3K
MaoZeDonK
Up — $952.34
hoodquant
Up — $876.74
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $400
asdcaxz
Up — $369.79