Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 82%
2 arb excluded
$12.9K
$-8.4K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 53 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.0K | 56% 343-271 (614) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$3.05 | 38% 175-284 (459) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$14.47 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $930.38 | -$7.35 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $465.19 | $930.38 | +$467.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 84.1¢ | $887.81 | $858.41 | -$29.4 | 46% 896-1035 (1931) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 91¢ | $519.55 | $570.72 | +$51.17 | 45% 957-1147 (2104) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $523.92 | $496.72 | -$1.13 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
19 0x19ae...395cCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 28-24 (52) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 76¢ | $322.43 | $342.53 | +$20.1 | 55% 4269-3511 (7780) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 77.7¢ | $256.33 | $271.4 | +$15.07 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 92.9¢ | $243.51 | $262.03 | +$18.52 | 49% 1227-1262 (2489) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $234.24 | $225.44 | -$8.8 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
BO bosona | Upavg 73¢ | $228.57 | $313.11 | +$84.54 | 51% 4479-4365 (8844) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 74.5¢ | $291.55 | $206.57 | -$84.98 | 60% 921-615 (1536) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $193.94 | $237.08 | +$43.13 | 50% 691-685 (1376) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 79.2¢ | $219.14 | $180 | -$39.14 | 44% 650-832 (1482) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $139.28 | $163.26 | +$23.98 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 77.1¢ | $119.78 | $154.03 | +$34.26 | 60% 873-594 (1467) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 99¢ | $129.69 | $131 | +$1.31 | 38% 1254-2047 (3301) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 69.7¢ | $148.16 | $115 | -$33.16 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 72¢ | $147.81 | $117 | -$30.21 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 97.5¢ | $122.03 | $100 | -$22.03 | 30% 598-1368 (1966) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 82.5¢ | $115.59 | $84.93 | -$30.66 | 45% 692-830 (1522) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 82.2¢ | $82.77 | $100.71 | +$17.94 | 55% 794-650 (1444) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Upavg 86.6¢ | $77.76 | $85.26 | +$7.5 | 60% 859-580 (1439) |
Invested
$8,871
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
56%
343-271 (614)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$3.05
Record
38%
175-284 (459)
Invested
$1,171.53
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$14.47
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$950
Value
$930.38
PnL
-$7.35
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Both legs:
Invested
$887.81
Value
$858.41
PnL
-$29.4
Record
46%
896-1035 (1931)
machinelearnedInvested
$519.55
Value
$570.72
PnL
+$51.17
Record
45%
957-1147 (2104)
Invested
$523.92
Value
$496.72
PnL
-$1.13
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
28-24 (52)
Invested
$322.43
Value
$342.53
PnL
+$20.1
Record
55%
4269-3511 (7780)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$256.33
Value
$271.4
PnL
+$15.07
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$243.51
Value
$262.03
PnL
+$18.52
Record
49%
1227-1262 (2489)
Invested
$234.24
Value
$225.44
PnL
-$8.8
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
Invested
$228.57
Value
$313.11
PnL
+$84.54
Record
51%
4479-4365 (8844)
Invested
$291.55
Value
$206.57
PnL
-$84.98
Record
60%
921-615 (1536)
Invested
$193.94
Value
$237.08
PnL
+$43.13
Record
50%
691-685 (1376)
Invested
$219.14
Value
$180
PnL
-$39.14
Record
44%
650-832 (1482)
Invested
$139.28
Value
$163.26
PnL
+$23.98
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
Invested
$119.78
Value
$154.03
PnL
+$34.26
Record
60%
873-594 (1467)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$129.69
Value
$131
PnL
+$1.31
Record
38%
1254-2047 (3301)
Invested
$148.16
Value
$115
PnL
-$33.16
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$147.81
Value
$117
PnL
-$30.21
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$122.03
Value
$100
PnL
-$22.03
Record
30%
598-1368 (1966)
Invested
$115.59
Value
$84.93
PnL
-$30.66
Record
45%
692-830 (1522)
Invested
$82.77
Value
$100.71
PnL
+$17.94
Record
55%
794-650 (1444)
Invested
$77.76
Value
$85.26
PnL
+$7.5
Record
60%
859-580 (1439)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $858.41
machinelearned
Up — $570.72
ByteBadger92
Up — $496.72
0x19ae...395c
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $342.53
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $271.4