Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 34%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$-9.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 52 top traders (33%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,497

Combined PnL$-10.3K

Up35 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,223

Combined PnL+$438.85

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	37% 107-186 (293)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.4K	45% 546-672 (1218)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 70.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$45.3	60% 815-543 (1358)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	—	-$933.86	51% 2709-2618 (5327)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 48.9¢	$540.85	$712.86	+$172.01	43% 579-760 (1339)
AL almach	Upavg 95¢	$805.41	$593.69	-$211.72	49% 1086-1109 (2195)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 66.1¢	$592.72	$565.17	-$27.55	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 67.7¢	$504.59	$513.3	+$8.71	55% 704-573 (1277)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 73.7¢	$504.39	$547.07	+$42.67	52% 627-584 (1211)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.8¢	$575.21	$500.08	-$15.34	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
ST stepahead	Upavg 69.6¢	$406.07	$402.88	-$3.19	55% 4139-3417 (7556)
BO bosona	Upavg 90.4¢	$398.45	$385.34	-$13.11	51% 4332-4226 (8558)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 48.2¢	$303.23	$315.3	+$12.07	45% 622-757 (1379)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 48¢	$227.37	$354.4	+$127.03	51% 683-644 (1327)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 81.3¢	$288.78	$298.93	+$10.14	51% 611-584 (1195)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 73.5¢	$259.84	$243.16	-$16.68	29% 522-1276 (1798)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 58.8¢	$227.52	$213.69	-$13.84	59% 772-528 (1300)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$257.8	$165.31	-$92.49	53% 680-593 (1273)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$89.58	$165.31	+$75.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$168.21	—	-$168.21
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$179.09	$189.51	+$10.42	49% 579-613 (1192)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$127.38	$189.51	+$62.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.2¢	$51.71	—	-$51.71
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 51¢	$187	$366.67	+$179.67	13% 23-149 (172)
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 39.4¢	$186.58	—	-$186.58	58% 745-542 (1287)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$234.23	$118.09	-$116.13	49% 588-613 (1201)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$179.9	—	-$179.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$54.32	$118.09	+$63.77
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 40.2¢	$117.87	$180.8	+$62.93	45% 538-668 (1206)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 79¢	$208.65	$175.84	-$32.81	52% 288-268 (556)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$148.19	$149.41	+$1.22	50% 579-577 (1156)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$68.98	$149.41	+$80.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$79.21	—	-$79.21

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

37%

107-186 (293)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

45%

546-672 (1218)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,004.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$45.3

Record

60%

815-543 (1358)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$933.86

Record

51%

2709-2618 (5327)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$540.85

Value

$712.86

PnL

+$172.01

Record

43%

579-760 (1339)

almach

Invested

$805.41

Value

$593.69

PnL

-$211.72

Record

49%

1086-1109 (2195)

blue.birds

Invested

$592.72

Value

$565.17

PnL

-$27.55

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$504.59

Value

$513.3

PnL

+$8.71

Record

55%

704-573 (1277)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$504.39

Value

$547.07

PnL

+$42.67

Record

52%

627-584 (1211)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$575.21

Value

$500.08

PnL

-$15.34

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

stepahead

Invested

$406.07

Value

$402.88

PnL

-$3.19

Record

55%

4139-3417 (7556)

bosona

Invested

$398.45

Value

$385.34

PnL

-$13.11

Record

51%

4332-4226 (8558)

GoodFallen

Invested

$303.23

Value

$315.3

PnL

+$12.07

Record

45%

622-757 (1379)

wzbbb

Invested

$227.37

Value

$354.4

PnL

+$127.03

Record

51%

683-644 (1327)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$288.78

Value

$298.93

PnL

+$10.14

Record

51%

611-584 (1195)

ply-pm0

Invested

$259.84

Value

$243.16

PnL

-$16.68

Record

29%

522-1276 (1798)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$227.52

Value

$213.69

PnL

-$13.84

Record

59%

772-528 (1300)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$257.8

Value

$165.31

PnL

-$92.49

Record

53%

680-593 (1273)

Both legs:

Up$89.5854.2¢+$75.73

Down$168.2144.9¢-$168.21

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$179.09

Value

$189.51

PnL

+$10.42

Record

49%

579-613 (1192)

Both legs:

Up$127.3867.2¢+$62.13

Down$51.7129.2¢-$51.71

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$187

Value

$366.67

PnL

+$179.67

Record

13%

23-149 (172)

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$186.58

Value

—

PnL

-$186.58

Record

58%

745-542 (1287)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$234.23

Value

$118.09

PnL

-$116.13

Record

49%

588-613 (1201)

Both legs:

Down$179.948.7¢-$179.9

Up$54.3246¢+$63.77

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$117.87

Value

$180.8

PnL

+$62.93

Record

45%

538-668 (1206)

gansinimen

Invested

$208.65

Value

$175.84

PnL

-$32.81

Record

52%

288-268 (556)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$148.19

Value

$149.41

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

579-577 (1156)

Both legs:

Up$68.9846.2¢+$80.43

Down$79.2151.3¢-$79.21

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 52 top traders (33%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe297ff40...8daceb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794586800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Up — $1.0K

+$45.3

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$933.86

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $712.86

+$172.01

almach

Up — $593.69

-$211.72

blue.birds

Up — $565.17

-$27.55

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $513.3

+$8.71

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Up — $547.07

+$42.67

ByteBadger92

Up — $500.08

-$15.34

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