Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

30 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.6K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 44 top traders (61%)30 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares18,157

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,610

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.5K	-$40.68	57% 271-208 (479)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	—	$-3.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.7K	$7.5K	+$3.9K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$28.23	37% 107-186 (293)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.8K	+$2.5K
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 76.7¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$530.22	49% 1499-1549 (3048)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 62¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$490.4	50% 1861-1835 (3696)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 664-5 (669)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$22.25	98% 2789-58 (2847)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 70.6¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$175.94	60% 815-543 (1358)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$553.81	—	-$553.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.6¢	$905.66	$1.3K	+$377.87
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$11.58	50% 1120-1110 (2230)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 59.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$113.4	52% 288-268 (556)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$111.99	46% 791-924 (1715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$420.24	—	-$420.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$700.68	$1.0K	+$308.25
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 67.1¢	$784.39	$936.06	+$151.68	51% 611-584 (1195)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.6¢	$156.35	—	-$156.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.1¢	$628.04	$936.06	+$308.02
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$866.72	$852.03	-$14.69	43% 579-760 (1339)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$416.99	—	-$416.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$449.72	$852.03	+$402.3
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$936.99	$845.16	-$91.84	52% 4514-4226 (8740)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.7¢	$417.35	—	-$417.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.5¢	$519.64	$845.16	+$325.52
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$920.13	-$8.39	51% 2709-2618 (5327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$460.06	$920.13	+$450.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$449.57	—	-$458.8
MaoZeDonK	Downavg 57.5¢	$500	$869.2	+$369.2	54% 14-12 (26)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$887.08	$781.5	-$105.58	53% 680-593 (1273)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$409.66	—	-$409.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$477.42	$781.5	+$304.07
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$505.47	$656.09	+$150.62	45% 622-757 (1379)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$323.24	$656.09	+$332.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$182.23	—	-$182.23
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 23.4¢	$344.2	$343.14	-$1.07	45% 538-668 (1206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.4¢	$184.77	—	-$184.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$159.44	$343.14	+$183.7
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	47% 1170-1297 (2467)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 43.4¢	$456.87	$413.07	+$149.61	29% 522-1276 (1798)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.2¢	$124.17	—	-$73.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$179.31	$413.07	+$223.57
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$629.06	$506.55	-$122.51	55% 4139-3417 (7556)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$338.63	$506.55	+$167.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$290.43	—	-$290.43
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$588.49	$477.84	+$25.76	55% 2652-2154 (4806)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$237.43	—	-$237.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$238.84	$477.84	+$262.96
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 55.5¢	$384.18	$461.92	+$114.55	51% 683-644 (1327)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68.3¢	$551.79	$456.76	+$22.57	51% 1727-1644 (3371)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Upavg 21.6¢	$217.19	—	-$217.19	44% 1633-2119 (3752)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,603

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$40.68

Record

57%

271-208 (479)

Both legs:

Up$3,793.1550¢$-3.9K

Down$3,736.6850¢+$3.9K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$28.23

Record

37%

107-186 (293)

Both legs:

Up$2,457.9950¢$-2.5K

Down$2,401.7550¢+$2.5K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,745.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$530.22

Record

49%

1499-1549 (3048)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,608.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$490.4

Record

50%

1861-1835 (3696)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

664-5 (669)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,537.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.25

Record

98%

2789-58 (2847)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,459.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$175.94

Record

60%

815-543 (1358)

Both legs:

Up$553.8140¢-$553.81

Down$905.6670.6¢+$377.87

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,146.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.58

Record

50%

1120-1110 (2230)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$1,219.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$113.4

Record

52%

288-268 (556)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,120.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$111.99

Record

46%

791-924 (1715)

Both legs:

Up$420.2437.9¢-$420.24

Down$700.6869.4¢+$308.25

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$784.39

Value

$936.06

PnL

+$151.68

Record

51%

611-584 (1195)

Both legs:

Up$156.3514.6¢-$156.35

Down$628.0467.1¢+$308.02

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$866.72

Value

$852.03

PnL

-$14.69

Record

43%

579-760 (1339)

Both legs:

Up$416.9940.2¢-$416.99

Down$449.7252.8¢+$402.3

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$936.99

Value

$845.16

PnL

-$91.84

Record

52%

4514-4226 (8740)

Both legs:

Up$417.3541.7¢-$417.35

Down$519.6461.5¢+$325.52

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$920.13

PnL

-$8.39

Record

51%

2709-2618 (5327)

Both legs:

Down$460.0650¢+$450.41

Up$449.5750¢-$458.8

MaoZeDonK

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$869.2

PnL

+$369.2

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$887.08

Value

$781.5

PnL

-$105.58

Record

53%

680-593 (1273)

Both legs:

Up$409.6644.9¢-$409.66

Down$477.4261.1¢+$304.07

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.47

Value

$656.09

PnL

+$150.62

Record

45%

622-757 (1379)

Both legs:

Down$323.2449.3¢+$332.85

Up$182.2336.8¢-$182.23

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$344.2

Value

$343.14

PnL

-$1.07

Record

45%

538-668 (1206)

Both legs:

Up$184.7723.4¢-$184.77

Down$159.4446.5¢+$183.7

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

1170-1297 (2467)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$456.87

Value

$413.07

PnL

+$149.61

Record

29%

522-1276 (1798)

Both legs:

Up$124.1721.2¢-$73.96

Down$179.3143.4¢+$223.57

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$629.06

Value

$506.55

PnL

-$122.51

Record

55%

4139-3417 (7556)

Both legs:

Down$338.6366.9¢+$167.92

Up$290.4360.8¢-$290.43

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$588.49

Value

$477.84

PnL

+$25.76

Record

55%

2652-2154 (4806)

Both legs:

Up$237.4348.2¢-$237.2

Down$238.8450¢+$262.96

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$384.18

Value

$461.92

PnL

+$114.55

Record

51%

683-644 (1327)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$551.79

Value

$456.76

PnL

+$22.57

Record

51%

1727-1644 (3371)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Invested

$217.19

Value

—

PnL

-$217.19

Record

44%

1633-2119 (3752)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 44 top traders (61%)30 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdfd12b48...263825

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794584400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.3K

+$530.22

uninformedfloww

Down — $2.0K

+$490.4

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$22.25

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$175.94

0x50f7

Down — $1.2K

+$11.58

gansinimen

Down — $1.1K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded