Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
70
Up 30%
$10.1K
$-11.6K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 70 top traders (31%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.8K | 57% 271-208 (479) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 37% 107-186 (293) |
 MaoZeDonK | Downavg 48.1¢ | $1.5K | $3.1K | +$1.6K | 54% 14-12 (26) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $868.85 | $878 | +$9.15 | 98% 2789-58 (2847) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 79.4¢ | $788.86 | $695.94 | -$85.46 | 60% 815-543 (1358) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.2¢ | $594.73 | $644.16 | +$49.43 | 55% 4139-3417 (7556) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.7¢ | $547.39 | — | -$488.56 | 55% 2652-2154 (4806) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 54.2¢ | $381.53 | $488.56 | +$139.94 | 43% 579-760 (1339) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.1¢ | $398.19 | $415.53 | +$17.34 | 52% 4514-4226 (8740) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 63¢ | $286.5 | $300 | +$13.5 | 52% 288-268 (556) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 51.1¢ | $185.24 | $290.45 | +$105.21 | 49% 1074-1128 (2202) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.8¢ | $636 | $260 | -$43.65 | 51% 1727-1644 (3371) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $236.04 | $253.43 | +$29.35 | 50% 2434-2391 (4825) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $132.57 | $226.34 | +$93.77 | 49% 993-1031 (2024) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $122.3 | $215.71 | +$93.4 | 52% 627-584 (1211) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $178.43 | $195 | +$16.57 | 47% 1686-1913 (3599) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 67.7¢ | $141.07 | $168.35 | +$40.93 | 45% 622-757 (1379) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 71.6¢ | $184.06 | $153.58 | +$34.59 | 59% 756-519 (1275) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 68.7¢ | $166.15 | $152.84 | +$38.04 | 58% 745-542 (1287) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 67.4¢ | $102 | $151.35 | +$49.35 | 50% 1861-1835 (3696) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $77.83 | $125 | +$47.17 | 50% 613-609 (1222) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $101.29 | $125 | +$23.71 | 45% 538-668 (1206) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $74.4 | $100 | +$49.3 | 56% 44-34 (78) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 73.1¢ | $106.1 | $98.17 | -$7.94 | 49% 579-613 (1192) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 78.6¢ | $113 | $91.28 | -$7.6 | 51% 683-644 (1327) |
Invested
$8,881
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
57%
271-208 (479)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
37%
107-186 (293)
MaoZeDonKInvested
$1,500
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
54%
14-12 (26)
Invested
$868.85
Value
$878
PnL
+$9.15
Record
98%
2789-58 (2847)
Invested
$788.86
Value
$695.94
PnL
-$85.46
Record
60%
815-543 (1358)
Invested
$594.73
Value
$644.16
PnL
+$49.43
Record
55%
4139-3417 (7556)
Invested
$547.39
Value
—
PnL
-$488.56
Record
55%
2652-2154 (4806)
Invested
$381.53
Value
$488.56
PnL
+$139.94
Record
43%
579-760 (1339)
Invested
$398.19
Value
$415.53
PnL
+$17.34
Record
52%
4514-4226 (8740)
Invested
$286.5
Value
$300
PnL
+$13.5
Record
52%
288-268 (556)
Invested
$185.24
Value
$290.45
PnL
+$105.21
Record
49%
1074-1128 (2202)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$636
Value
$260
PnL
-$43.65
Record
51%
1727-1644 (3371)
Invested
$236.04
Value
$253.43
PnL
+$29.35
Record
50%
2434-2391 (4825)
Invested
$132.57
Value
$226.34
PnL
+$93.77
Record
49%
993-1031 (2024)
Invested
$122.3
Value
$215.71
PnL
+$93.4
Record
52%
627-584 (1211)
Invested
$178.43
Value
$195
PnL
+$16.57
Record
47%
1686-1913 (3599)
Invested
$141.07
Value
$168.35
PnL
+$40.93
Record
45%
622-757 (1379)
Invested
$184.06
Value
$153.58
PnL
+$34.59
Record
59%
756-519 (1275)
Invested
$166.15
Value
$152.84
PnL
+$38.04
Record
58%
745-542 (1287)
Invested
$102
Value
$151.35
PnL
+$49.35
Record
50%
1861-1835 (3696)
Invested
$77.83
Value
$125
PnL
+$47.17
Record
50%
613-609 (1222)
Invested
$101.29
Value
$125
PnL
+$23.71
Record
45%
538-668 (1206)
Invested
$74.4
Value
$100
PnL
+$49.3
Record
56%
44-34 (78)
Invested
$106.1
Value
$98.17
PnL
-$7.94
Record
49%
579-613 (1192)
Invested
$113
Value
$91.28
PnL
-$7.6
Record
51%
683-644 (1327)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
MaoZeDonK
Down — $3.1K
hoodquant
Down — $878
Bonereaper
Down — $695.94
stepahead
Down — $644.16
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $488.56
blue.birds
Down — $415.53
gansinimen
Down — $300