Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 70%
1 arb excluded
$21.9K
$-7.3K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 57 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-6.7K | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$28.1 | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$4.07 | 46% 443-530 (973) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 92.2¢ | $3.1K | $3.4K | +$265 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 80.5¢ | $958.72 | $1.2K | +$196.16 | 43% 690-922 (1612) |
AL almach | Upavg 86.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$63.15 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 88.9¢ | $877.16 | $979.53 | +$102.37 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
BO bosona | Upavg 88.2¢ | $846.28 | $956.48 | +$110.2 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $808.89 | $819 | +$10.11 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
KA KARIZMATIKU | Upavg 47.6¢ | $261.22 | $548.45 | +$287.23 | 9% 15-144 (159) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $545 | +$0.35 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $272.5 | $545 | +$273 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $272.5 | — | -$272.65 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 56.7¢ | $308.43 | $387.44 | +$79.91 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 89.2¢ | $388.98 | $373.87 | -$15.11 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 64.4¢ | $289.13 | $309.72 | +$20.59 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $334.83 | $308.76 | -$25.82 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 51.2¢ | $210.37 | $225.86 | +$15.49 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 75.4¢ | $171.18 | $212.4 | +$41.22 | 36% 477-856 (1333) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 73¢ | $138.78 | $147.86 | +$9.08 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 82.2¢ | $123.76 | $149.78 | +$26.02 | 50% 3538-3496 (7034) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 68¢ | $102 | $150 | +$48 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 20.1¢ | $188.45 | — | -$181.57 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 87.7¢ | $118.74 | $125.78 | +$7.03 | 60% 592-398 (990) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Downavg 18.2¢ | $92.56 | — | -$92.56 | 50% 480-475 (955) |
Invested
$8,786
Value
—
PnL
$-6.7K
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$28.1
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$4.07
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$3,147.26
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$265
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
machinelearnedInvested
$958.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$196.16
Record
43%
690-922 (1612)
Invested
$1,062
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$63.15
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Invested
$877.16
Value
$979.53
PnL
+$102.37
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$846.28
Value
$956.48
PnL
+$110.2
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$808.89
Value
$819
PnL
+$10.11
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$261.22
Value
$548.45
PnL
+$287.23
Record
9%
15-144 (159)
Invested
$550
Value
$545
PnL
+$0.35
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$308.43
Value
$387.44
PnL
+$79.91
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$388.98
Value
$373.87
PnL
-$15.11
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$289.13
Value
$309.72
PnL
+$20.59
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$334.83
Value
$308.76
PnL
-$25.82
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$210.37
Value
$225.86
PnL
+$15.49
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$171.18
Value
$212.4
PnL
+$41.22
Record
36%
477-856 (1333)
Invested
$138.78
Value
$147.86
PnL
+$9.08
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Invested
$123.76
Value
$149.78
PnL
+$26.02
Record
50%
3538-3496 (7034)
Invested
$102
Value
$150
PnL
+$48
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
Invested
$188.45
Value
—
PnL
-$181.57
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$118.74
Value
$125.78
PnL
+$7.03
Record
60%
592-398 (990)
Invested
$92.56
Value
—
PnL
-$92.56
Record
50%
480-475 (955)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
Up — $3.7K
Bonereaper
Up — $3.4K
machinelearned
Up — $1.2K
almach
Up — $1.1K
mo-money
Up — $979.53
bosona
Up — $956.48
hoodquant
Up — $819
KARIZMATIKU
Up — $548.45