Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 52%
6 arb excluded
$20.1K
$-9.4K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 59 top traders (53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.2K | +$73.51 | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 46% 443-530 (973) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 522-3 (525) |
KA KARIZMATIKU | Upavg 48.4¢ | $374 | $772.88 | +$398.88 | 9% 15-144 (159) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 65.4¢ | $653.42 | $611.65 | -$41.77 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 79.7¢ | $504 | $632.34 | +$128.34 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 69.2¢ | $614.18 | $567.84 | -$46.34 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 47.1¢ | $543.59 | — | -$543.59 | 50% 437-429 (866) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | -$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | -$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71.6¢ | $479.24 | $476.68 | -$2.56 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $481.53 | $467.3 | -$14.23 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 87.1¢ | $455.23 | $450 | -$5.24 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.5¢ | $463.02 | $447.26 | -$15.76 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.6¢ | $395.04 | $420.25 | +$25.21 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 88.5¢ | $427.13 | $400 | -$27.13 | 43% 690-922 (1612) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 76.7¢ | $319.69 | $292.56 | -$27.13 | 56% 557-436 (993) |
SU suntori | Upavg 62.5¢ | $177.85 | $255.87 | +$100.82 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 73.8¢ | $176.8 | $194.6 | +$21.28 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 28.2¢ | $112.96 | — | -$112.96 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Downavg 34.2¢ | $159.53 | — | -$159.53 | 51% 494-477 (971) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $180 | +$0 | 53% 312-279 (591) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $90 | $180 | +$90 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$90 | |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 88.5¢ | $178.72 | $147.76 | -$8.48 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 55.6¢ | $328.3 | — | -$328.3 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
Invested
$8,815
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$73.51
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
522-3 (525)
Invested
$374
Value
$772.88
PnL
+$398.88
Record
9%
15-144 (159)
Invested
$653.42
Value
$611.65
PnL
-$41.77
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$504
Value
$632.34
PnL
+$128.34
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$614.18
Value
$567.84
PnL
-$46.34
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$543.59
Value
—
PnL
-$543.59
Record
50%
437-429 (866)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
-$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Both legs:
Invested
$479.24
Value
$476.68
PnL
-$2.56
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
Invested
$481.53
Value
$467.3
PnL
-$14.23
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$455.23
Value
$450
PnL
-$5.24
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$463.02
Value
$447.26
PnL
-$15.76
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$395.04
Value
$420.25
PnL
+$25.21
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
machinelearnedInvested
$427.13
Value
$400
PnL
-$27.13
Record
43%
690-922 (1612)
Invested
$319.69
Value
$292.56
PnL
-$27.13
Record
56%
557-436 (993)
Invested
$177.85
Value
$255.87
PnL
+$100.82
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$176.8
Value
$194.6
PnL
+$21.28
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Invested
$112.96
Value
—
PnL
-$112.96
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$159.53
Value
—
PnL
-$159.53
Record
51%
494-477 (971)
Invested
$180
Value
$180
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
312-279 (591)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.72
Value
$147.76
PnL
-$8.48
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
Invested
$328.3
Value
—
PnL
-$328.3
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
KARIZMATIKU
Up — $772.88
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $611.65
uninformedfloww
Up — $632.34
Bonereaper
Up — $567.84
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage — excluded