Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

29 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Up (74%) · Up at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 39 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares21,256

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down10 traders

Total Value$692.71

Total Shares2,773

Combined PnL-$224.93

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 99.6¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$18.96	57% 46-35 (81)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$1.5	47% 593-674 (1267)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 90.9¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$203.7	46% 495-586 (1081)
MO mo-money	Upavg 95.7¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$250.26	45% 619-745 (1364)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$17.74	98% 1837-39 (1876)
BO bosona	Upavg 95.6¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$289.82	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
AL almach	Upavg 94.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$198.24	46% 613-725 (1338)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78¢	$923.98	$852.75	-$71.23	26% 398-1141 (1539)
ST stepahead	Upavg 73.8¢	$718.4	$695.78	-$22.62	54% 3749-3148 (6897)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 97¢	$582	$599.7	+$17.7	37% 435-728 (1163)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 35.2¢	$600.93	$534.53	-$66.4	48% 950-1050 (2000)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 69.7¢	$531.85	$483.25	-$48.6	40% 341-509 (850)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 86.1¢	$507.54	$408.04	-$41.9	53% 1080-957 (2037)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 83.9¢	$381.39	$398.78	+$17.39	52% 3739-3509 (7248)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$434.32	$376.62	-$57.71	58% 500-357 (857)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$167.75	$249.82	+$82.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$266.57	$126.79	-$139.77
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 62.7¢	$217.94	$195	-$22.94	41% 364-527 (891)
VO Votei14Voude22	Upavg 53.6¢	$100	$186.48	+$86.48	0% 0-30 (30)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 53.5¢	$187	$176.65	-$10.35	6% 8-134 (142)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 57.3¢	$87.55	$118.84	+$31.29	53% 4123-3599 (7722)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$99.73	$97.38	-$2.35	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 92.2¢	$97.79	$89.72	-$8.07	35% 531-973 (1504)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 93.5¢	$146.4	$88.8	-$57.6	52% 178-166 (344)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 90¢	$76.05	$77.32	+$1.27	51% 388-374 (762)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Upavg 90¢	$76.05	$77.32	+$1.27	50% 388-390 (778)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 98¢	$64.68	$65.97	+$1.29	40% 643-968 (1611)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$5,428.21

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$18.96

Record

57%

46-35 (81)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

593-674 (1267)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$2,511.7

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$203.7

Record

46%

495-586 (1081)

mo-money

Invested

$1,770.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$250.26

Record

45%

619-745 (1364)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,448.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$17.74

Record

98%

1837-39 (1876)

bosona

Invested

$1,711.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$289.82

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

almach

Invested

$1,300.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$198.24

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

ply-pm0

Invested

$923.98

Value

$852.75

PnL

-$71.23

Record

26%

398-1141 (1539)

stepahead

Invested

$718.4

Value

$695.78

PnL

-$22.62

Record

54%

3749-3148 (6897)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$582

Value

$599.7

PnL

+$17.7

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$600.93

Value

$534.53

PnL

-$66.4

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$531.85

Value

$483.25

PnL

-$48.6

Record

40%

341-509 (850)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$507.54

Value

$408.04

PnL

-$41.9

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

blue.birds

Invested

$381.39

Value

$398.78

PnL

+$17.39

Record

52%

3739-3509 (7248)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$434.32

Value

$376.62

PnL

-$57.71

Record

58%

500-357 (857)

Both legs:

Up$167.7553.4¢+$82.07

Down$266.5743.1¢-$139.77

GoodFallen

Invested

$217.94

Value

$195

PnL

-$22.94

Record

41%

364-527 (891)

Votei14Voude22

Invested

$100

Value

$186.48

PnL

+$86.48

Record

0-30 (30)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$187

Value

$176.65

PnL

-$10.35

Record

8-134 (142)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$87.55

Value

$118.84

PnL

+$31.29

Record

53%

4123-3599 (7722)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$99.73

Value

$97.38

PnL

-$2.35

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$97.79

Value

$89.72

PnL

-$8.07

Record

35%

531-973 (1504)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$146.4

Value

$88.8

PnL

-$57.6

Record

52%

178-166 (344)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$76.05

Value

$77.32

PnL

+$1.27

Record

51%

388-374 (762)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Invested

$76.05

Value

$77.32

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

388-390 (778)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$64.68

Value

$65.97

PnL

+$1.29

Record

40%

643-968 (1611)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 39 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.