Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 36 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares18,708

Combined PnL+$6.7K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,375

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 84.6¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$613.92	58% 500-357 (857)
BO bosona	Downavg 44.3¢	$1.3K	$2.7K	+$1.3K	50% 3845-3861 (7706)
AL almach	Downavg 45.3¢	$1.2K	$2.6K	+$1.4K	46% 613-725 (1338)
MO mo-money	Downavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	$2.5K	+$1.3K	45% 619-745 (1364)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 42.8¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	26% 398-1141 (1539)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 37.4¢	$1.5K	$2.8K	+$1.4K	48% 950-1050 (2000)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$1.1K	$2.8K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$398	—	-$398
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 52.6¢	$607.29	$1.2K	+$547.23	49% 706-726 (1432)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 42.1¢	$482.81	$992.64	+$519.83	46% 495-586 (1081)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$977.73	$992	+$14.27	98% 1837-39 (1876)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 55¢	$819.37	$781.19	-$38.18	52% 3739-3509 (7248)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 50.9¢	$680.3	$755.4	+$75.1	40% 341-509 (850)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 53.1¢	$576.06	—	-$564.26	54% 3749-3148 (6897)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 47.5¢	$359.2	$469.14	+$109.95	53% 1080-957 (2037)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 50¢	$253.5	$319.36	+$65.86	41% 364-527 (891)
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 51.3¢	$187	—	-$187	6% 8-134 (142)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 36.4¢	$82.91	$147.26	+$64.36	53% 4123-3599 (7722)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 38.3¢	$107.2	$280	+$172.8	52% 178-166 (344)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$95.62	$118.4	+$22.78	52% 470-441 (911)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$43.12	$118.4	+$75.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$52.5	—	-$52.5
ohioism	Downavg 60¢	$66.49	$110	+$43.51	48% 962-1040 (2002)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 47.4¢	$89.86	$189.65	+$99.79	50% 3450-3393 (6843)
Bossgirl<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$71.73	$94	+$22.27	49% 32-33 (65)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 83¢	$75.58	$91.11	+$15.53	40% 643-968 (1611)
PL ply-pm4	Downavg 74.8¢	$75.47	$100.92	+$25.45	16% 62-334 (396)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$54.48	$69.02	+$14.54	47% 315-355 (670)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$53.13	—	-$53.13	74% 723-254 (977)