Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Up 73%
2 arb excluded
$8.7K
-$645.36
Smart Money Signal
24 of 33 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 74% 723-254 (977) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 55¢ | $375.05 | $659 | +$299.15 | 49% 706-726 (1432) |
BO bosona | Upavg 99¢ | $737.9 | $505 | -$232.9 | 50% 3845-3861 (7706) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.5¢ | $450.57 | $437.3 | +$15.83 | 52% 3739-3509 (7248) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 84.1¢ | $408.17 | $440.56 | +$39.59 | 53% 1080-957 (2037) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 70.4¢ | $375.65 | $367.01 | -$8.36 | 58% 500-357 (857) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $363.38 | $334.12 | -$29.26 | 26% 398-1141 (1539) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 43.6¢ | $343.12 | $185.13 | -$157.99 | 46% 495-586 (1081) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.6¢ | $239.54 | — | -$239.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $103.58 | $185.13 | +$81.55 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 96.9¢ | $409.86 | $278.21 | -$131.65 | 45% 619-745 (1364) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $412.46 | $283.03 | -$129.43 | 48% 950-1050 (2000) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.3¢ | $249.32 | $255.72 | +$6.4 | 54% 3749-3148 (6897) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 41.9¢ | $376.04 | — | -$376.04 | 40% 341-509 (850) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $167.26 | $265.81 | +$98.56 | 50% 388-390 (778) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 95.4¢ | $227.28 | $217.64 | -$9.63 | 59% 480-336 (816) |
AL almach | Upavg 77.9¢ | $156.62 | $164.46 | +$7.84 | 46% 613-725 (1338) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 99¢ | $135.42 | $131.3 | -$4.12 | 35% 531-973 (1504) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 43.8¢ | $128.9 | $60 | -$68.9 | 41% 364-527 (891) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.8¢ | $94.7 | — | -$94.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57¢ | $34.2 | $60 | +$25.8 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $119.79 | $121 | +$1.21 | 98% 1837-39 (1876) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 22.2¢ | $133.01 | — | -$133.01 | 40% 554-833 (1387) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $70.52 | $83.99 | +$13.48 | 47% 315-355 (670) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $80.59 | $65.98 | -$14.61 | 49% 3432-3549 (6981) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $74.15 | $62.14 | +$8.05 | 38% 687-1125 (1812) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $59.6 | $60 | +$13.9 | 34% 379-751 (1130) |
KA KARIZMATIKU<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $50 | $94.49 | +$44.49 | 6% 8-134 (142) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.5¢ | $67.32 | — | -$67.32 | 53% 4123-3599 (7722) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
74%
723-254 (977)
Invested
$375.05
Value
$659
PnL
+$299.15
Record
49%
706-726 (1432)
Invested
$737.9
Value
$505
PnL
-$232.9
Record
50%
3845-3861 (7706)
Invested
$450.57
Value
$437.3
PnL
+$15.83
Record
52%
3739-3509 (7248)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$408.17
Value
$440.56
PnL
+$39.59
Record
53%
1080-957 (2037)
Invested
$375.65
Value
$367.01
PnL
-$8.36
Record
58%
500-357 (857)
Invested
$363.38
Value
$334.12
PnL
-$29.26
Record
26%
398-1141 (1539)
Invested
$343.12
Value
$185.13
PnL
-$157.99
Record
46%
495-586 (1081)
Both legs:
Invested
$409.86
Value
$278.21
PnL
-$131.65
Record
45%
619-745 (1364)
Invested
$412.46
Value
$283.03
PnL
-$129.43
Record
48%
950-1050 (2000)
Invested
$249.32
Value
$255.72
PnL
+$6.4
Record
54%
3749-3148 (6897)
Invested
$376.04
Value
—
PnL
-$376.04
Record
40%
341-509 (850)
Invested
$167.26
Value
$265.81
PnL
+$98.56
Record
50%
388-390 (778)
Invested
$227.28
Value
$217.64
PnL
-$9.63
Record
59%
480-336 (816)
Invested
$156.62
Value
$164.46
PnL
+$7.84
Record
46%
613-725 (1338)
pspspsps5Invested
$135.42
Value
$131.3
PnL
-$4.12
Record
35%
531-973 (1504)
Invested
$128.9
Value
$60
PnL
-$68.9
Record
41%
364-527 (891)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.79
Value
$121
PnL
+$1.21
Record
98%
1837-39 (1876)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$133.01
Value
—
PnL
-$133.01
Record
40%
554-833 (1387)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$70.52
Value
$83.99
PnL
+$13.48
Record
47%
315-355 (670)
Invested
$80.59
Value
$65.98
PnL
-$14.61
Record
49%
3432-3549 (6981)
Invested
$74.15
Value
$62.14
PnL
+$8.05
Record
38%
687-1125 (1812)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$59.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$13.9
Record
34%
379-751 (1130)
Invested
$50
Value
$94.49
PnL
+$44.49
Record
6%
8-134 (142)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$67.32
Value
—
PnL
-$67.32
Record
53%
4123-3599 (7722)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Up — $3.5K
uninformedfloww
Up — $659
bosona
Up — $505
blue.birds
Up — $437.3
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $440.56
Bonereaper
Up — $367.01
ply-pm0
Up — $334.12
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $278.21
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $283.03