Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 66%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
-$364.37
Smart Money Signal
23 of 35 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 95.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$22.79 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$1.62 | 46% 507-597 (1104) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $507.87 | $513 | +$5.13 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $413.35 | $397.13 | -$16.22 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80.5¢ | $240.72 | $263.08 | +$22.35 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 69.3¢ | $179.36 | $230.66 | +$51.3 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $235.47 | $206.23 | -$29.24 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 85.4¢ | $191.42 | $170 | -$17.52 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $156.16 | $162.97 | +$6.81 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $142.27 | $137.35 | -$4.89 | 62% 1746-1091 (2837) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.7¢ | $160.59 | $126.64 | -$33.95 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $153.22 | $48.92 | -$104.31 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.5¢ | $121.92 | — | -$121.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $31.31 | $48.92 | +$17.61 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 18.8¢ | $114.78 | — | -$114.78 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 81.9¢ | $115.56 | $102.91 | -$12.65 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $92.73 | $75.81 | -$16.92 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $83.48 | $80.16 | -$1.83 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 21.1¢ | $178.48 | — | -$174.58 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
NO notfairplay<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $50 | $74.63 | +$24.63 | 17% 5-24 (29) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $72.75 | $75 | +$2.25 | 50% 3395-3345 (6740) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 92.9¢ | $171.71 | $72.82 | -$19.69 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $58.97 | $70 | +$11.03 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 94.4¢ | $57 | $60.36 | +$3.36 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $43.36 | $57.33 | +$13.97 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.3¢ | $32.24 | — | -$32.24 | 52% 351-330 (681) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $29.9 | $37.37 | +$7.47 | 49% 3270-3379 (6649) |
Invested
$1,629.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$22.79
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$1,613.7
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$1.62
Record
46%
507-597 (1104)
Invested
$507.87
Value
$513
PnL
+$5.13
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$413.35
Value
$397.13
PnL
-$16.22
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
Invested
$240.72
Value
$263.08
PnL
+$22.35
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
machinelearnedInvested
$179.36
Value
$230.66
PnL
+$51.3
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Invested
$235.47
Value
$206.23
PnL
-$29.24
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Invested
$191.42
Value
$170
PnL
-$17.52
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$156.16
Value
$162.97
PnL
+$6.81
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Invested
$142.27
Value
$137.35
PnL
-$4.89
Record
62%
1746-1091 (2837)
Invested
$160.59
Value
$126.64
PnL
-$33.95
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$153.22
Value
$48.92
PnL
-$104.31
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Both legs:
Invested
$114.78
Value
—
PnL
-$114.78
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$115.56
Value
$102.91
PnL
-$12.65
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$92.73
Value
$75.81
PnL
-$16.92
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$83.48
Value
$80.16
PnL
-$1.83
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
Invested
$178.48
Value
—
PnL
-$174.58
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$50
Value
$74.63
PnL
+$24.63
Record
17%
5-24 (29)
Invested
$72.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$2.25
Record
50%
3395-3345 (6740)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$171.71
Value
$72.82
PnL
-$19.69
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$58.97
Value
$70
PnL
+$11.03
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
Invested
$57
Value
$60.36
PnL
+$3.36
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
Invested
$43.36
Value
$57.33
PnL
+$13.97
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$32.24
Value
—
PnL
-$32.24
Record
52%
351-330 (681)
Invested
$29.9
Value
$37.37
PnL
+$7.47
Record
49%
3270-3379 (6649)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
0x50f7
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $513
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $397.13
blue.birds
Down — $263.08
machinelearned
Down — $230.66
ply-pm0
Down — $206.23
GoodFallen
Down — $170
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $162.97
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $137.35