Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Up 60%
2 arb excluded
$5.4K
$-2.9K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 35 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$13.76 | 58% 428-305 (733) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 54.2¢ | $637.12 | — | -$637.12 | 40% 296-435 (731) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 57.5¢ | $572.33 | — | -$474.33 | 52% 3556-3327 (6883) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 24.4¢ | $397.7 | — | -$397.7 | 45% 417-512 (929) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 37.9¢ | $230.49 | $368.69 | +$138.2 | 32% 319-692 (1011) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 48.9¢ | $370.01 | — | -$294.62 | 51% 1031-992 (2023) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 71.9¢ | $465.11 | $326.14 | -$138.97 | 39% 484-758 (1242) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 66.4¢ | $287.89 | — | -$287.89 | 51% 343-326 (669) |
AL almach | Upavg 75.4¢ | $230.5 | $305.82 | +$75.32 | 45% 514-636 (1150) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 47.6¢ | $264.98 | — | -$264.98 | 48% 1299-1404 (2703) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 41.4¢ | $249.34 | — | -$249.34 | 24% 339-1081 (1420) |
BO bosona | Upavg 68.7¢ | $213.27 | $288.75 | +$75.48 | 50% 3744-3775 (7519) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 45.9¢ | $224.79 | $269.53 | +$44.74 | 54% 3659-3078 (6737) |
NO notfairplay | Upavg 43¢ | $100 | $232.56 | +$132.56 | 17% 5-24 (29) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 43¢ | $151.78 | $242.27 | +$90.49 | 53% 4069-3543 (7612) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR | Downavg 67¢ | $320.23 | — | -$320.23 | 60% 419-277 (696) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 47.1¢ | $245.57 | — | -$200.97 | 41% 320-454 (774) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 45.1¢ | $161.75 | — | -$161.75 | 49% 3249-3358 (6607) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $192.09 | $199.99 | +$7.9 | 52% 340-317 (657) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $80.09 | — | -$80.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $111.99 | $199.99 | +$87.99 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 46.8¢ | $125.87 | $160 | +$34.13 | 53% 923-832 (1755) |
 OhioAICTR | Downavg 66.7¢ | $156.22 | — | -$156.22 | 47% 257-295 (552) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 93.7¢ | $121.76 | $129.91 | +$8.15 | 65% 1505-799 (2304) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 91¢ | $91 | $100 | +$9 | 45% 523-652 (1175) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $55.13 | $85.84 | +$30.71 | 48% 825-881 (1706) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $23.52 | — | -$23.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.8¢ | $31.61 | $85.84 | +$54.22 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 31.4¢ | $34.04 | $52.15 | +$46.46 | 44% 812-1016 (1828) |
Invested
$2,378.86
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$13.76
Record
58%
428-305 (733)
Invested
$637.12
Value
—
PnL
-$637.12
Record
40%
296-435 (731)
Invested
$572.33
Value
—
PnL
-$474.33
Record
52%
3556-3327 (6883)
Invested
$397.7
Value
—
PnL
-$397.7
Record
45%
417-512 (929)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$230.49
Value
$368.69
PnL
+$138.2
Record
32%
319-692 (1011)
Invested
$370.01
Value
—
PnL
-$294.62
Record
51%
1031-992 (2023)
machinelearnedInvested
$465.11
Value
$326.14
PnL
-$138.97
Record
39%
484-758 (1242)
Invested
$287.89
Value
—
PnL
-$287.89
Record
51%
343-326 (669)
Invested
$230.5
Value
$305.82
PnL
+$75.32
Record
45%
514-636 (1150)
Invested
$264.98
Value
—
PnL
-$264.98
Record
48%
1299-1404 (2703)
Invested
$249.34
Value
—
PnL
-$249.34
Record
24%
339-1081 (1420)
Invested
$213.27
Value
$288.75
PnL
+$75.48
Record
50%
3744-3775 (7519)
Invested
$224.79
Value
$269.53
PnL
+$44.74
Record
54%
3659-3078 (6737)
Invested
$100
Value
$232.56
PnL
+$132.56
Record
17%
5-24 (29)
FairValueMachineInvested
$151.78
Value
$242.27
PnL
+$90.49
Record
53%
4069-3543 (7612)
Invested
$320.23
Value
—
PnL
-$320.23
Record
60%
419-277 (696)
Invested
$245.57
Value
—
PnL
-$200.97
Record
41%
320-454 (774)
Invested
$161.75
Value
—
PnL
-$161.75
Record
49%
3249-3358 (6607)
Invested
$192.09
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$7.9
Record
52%
340-317 (657)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$125.87
Value
$160
PnL
+$34.13
Record
53%
923-832 (1755)
OhioAICTRInvested
$156.22
Value
—
PnL
-$156.22
Record
47%
257-295 (552)
Invested
$121.76
Value
$129.91
PnL
+$8.15
Record
65%
1505-799 (2304)
Invested
$91
Value
$100
PnL
+$9
Record
45%
523-652 (1175)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$55.13
Value
$85.84
PnL
+$30.71
Record
48%
825-881 (1706)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$34.04
Value
$52.15
PnL
+$46.46
Record
44%
812-1016 (1828)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $2.4K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Up — $368.69
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $326.14
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
CTRDown — $0
almach
Up — $305.82
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0