Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 21% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 21%

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$-42.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 47 top traders (21%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up37 traders

Total Value$33.3K

Total Shares33,306

Combined PnL+$14.9K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares100,823

Combined PnL$-57.2K

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 83.6¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$101.09	59% 279-195 (474)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 41.4¢	$1.5K	$3.7K	+$2.1K	49% 523-535 (1058)
LI Liquidifier	Upavg 42¢	$1.9K	$3.3K	+$2.5K	8% 7-83 (90)
AL almach	Upavg 42¢	$1.3K	$3.2K	+$1.8K	41% 315-447 (762)
MO mo-money	Upavg 41.7¢	$1.3K	$3.1K	+$1.8K	41% 317-458 (775)
BO bosona	Upavg 41.6¢	$1.3K	$3.0K	+$1.8K	50% 3547-3589 (7136)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$57.74	98% 1050-22 (1072)
AD adururu	Upavg 43.9¢	$619.77	$1.4K	+$791.59	2% 5-257 (262)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 46.8¢	$1.0K	—	-$990.82	52% 3162-2947 (6109)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 40.4¢	$463.33	$889.88	+$426.55	20% 236-934 (1170)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 41.2¢	$650.37	$849.05	+$355.26	43% 498-671 (1169)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 48.4¢	$374	$773.25	+$399.25	2% 3-132 (135)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 42.4¢	$515.94	$769.03	+$384.09	47% 282-317 (599)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 44¢	$323.09	$734.44	+$411.35	47% 291-329 (620)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 45.6¢	$509.78	$582.63	+$75.56	42% 199-280 (479)
Atomforge	Upavg 45¢	$252.91	$561.59	+$308.68	11% 80-677 (757)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 47.5¢	$509.31	—	-$509.31	48% 802-884 (1686)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 40.8¢	$203.47	$496.31	+$292.84	53% 232-203 (435)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 56.2¢	$413.28	—	-$410.63	45% 246-297 (543)
ST stepahead	Upavg 44¢	$294.06	$441.3	+$168.12	54% 3478-2923 (6401)
machinelearned	Upavg 64.1¢	$440.77	$444.44	+$3.67	35% 317-601 (918)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 41¢	$167.77	$399.44	+$231.67	53% 678-592 (1270)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 41.9¢	$173.94	$407.5	+$233.56	53% 226-203 (429)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 52.3¢	$305.94	$377.92	+$71.98	38% 197-326 (523)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 43.9¢	$109.71	$249.97	+$140.27	45% 500-607 (1107)

Bonereaper

Invested

$4,412.1

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$101.09

Record

59%

279-195 (474)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,520.1

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

49%

523-535 (1058)

Liquidifier

Invested

$1,866.48

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

7-83 (90)

almach

Invested

$1,337.92

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

41%

315-447 (762)

mo-money

Invested

$1,288.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

41%

317-458 (775)

bosona

Invested

$1,253.1

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

3547-3589 (7136)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,765.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$57.74

Record

98%

1050-22 (1072)

adururu

Invested

$619.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$791.59

Record

5-257 (262)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,021.67

Value

—

PnL

-$990.82

Record

52%

3162-2947 (6109)

ply-pm0

Invested

$463.33

Value

$889.88

PnL

+$426.55

Record

20%

236-934 (1170)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$650.37

Value

$849.05

PnL

+$355.26

Record

43%

498-671 (1169)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$374

Value

$773.25

PnL

+$399.25

Record

3-132 (135)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$515.94

Value

$769.03

PnL

+$384.09

Record

47%

282-317 (599)

PBot-5

Invested

$323.09

Value

$734.44

PnL

+$411.35

Record

47%

291-329 (620)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$509.78

Value

$582.63

PnL

+$75.56

Record

42%

199-280 (479)

Atomforge

Invested

$252.91

Value

$561.59

PnL

+$308.68

Record

11%

80-677 (757)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$509.31

Value

—

PnL

-$509.31

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$203.47

Value

$496.31

PnL

+$292.84

Record

53%

232-203 (435)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$413.28

Value

—

PnL

-$410.63

Record

45%

246-297 (543)

stepahead

Invested

$294.06

Value

$441.3

PnL

+$168.12

Record

54%

3478-2923 (6401)

machinelearned

Invested

$440.77

Value

$444.44

PnL

+$3.67

Record

35%

317-601 (918)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$167.77

Value

$399.44

PnL

+$231.67

Record

53%

678-592 (1270)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$173.94

Value

$407.5

PnL

+$233.56

Record

53%

226-203 (429)

GoodFallen

Invested

$305.94

Value

$377.92

PnL

+$71.98

Record

38%

197-326 (523)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$109.71

Value

$249.97

PnL

+$140.27

Record

45%

500-607 (1107)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 47 top traders (21%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x854ef738...7fba34

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794325500

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $4.3K

-$101.09

uninformedfloww

Up — $3.7K

+$2.1K

Liquidifier

Up — $3.3K

+$2.5K

almach

Up — $3.2K

+$1.8K

mo-money

Up — $3.1K

+$1.8K

bosona

Up — $3.0K

+$1.8K

hoodquant

Up — $1.8K

+$57.74

adururu

Up — $1.4K

+$791.59

blue.birds

CTR

Down — $0

-$990.82

ply-pm0

Up — $889.88

+$426.55

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