Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 8

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 100¢

+98% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares14,843

Combined PnL+$5.8K

Up6 traders

Total Value$931.04

Total Shares3,613

Combined PnL-$468.94

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
76 76marsh	Downavg 44.1¢	$3.1K	$7.1K	+$4.0K	61% 23-15 (38)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 41.9¢	$752.03	$1.5K	+$787.81	75% 295-99 (394)
machinelearned	Downavg 70.1¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$167.04	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
BY ByteBadger93	Downavg 52.2¢	$402.73	$729.33	+$326.61	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
Atomforge	Downavg 41.2¢	$308.45	$692.82	+$384.37	64% 5030-2825 (7855)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 69.2¢	$674.55	$648.92	-$25.63	51% 12360-11859 (24219)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.2¢	$549.99	$542.97	-$7.02	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 31.3¢	$619	$533.66	-$85.33	66% 101181-52990 (154171)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 47.5¢	$369.62	$385.48	+$15.86	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 67.3¢	$196.68	$292.3	+$95.62	55% 15067-12471 (27538)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 63.3¢	$174.4	$263.54	+$89.14	53% 10527-9523 (20050)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 37.7¢	$304.42	$261.01	-$43.4	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
MO mo-money	Downavg 64.3¢	$151.81	$236.11	+$84.3	55% 52460-42905 (95365)
AL almach	Downavg 64.8¢	$144.21	$222.36	+$78.15	55% 50273-41876 (92149)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 63.7¢	$120.41	$188.85	+$68.44	52% 21295-19590 (40885)
Bossgirl	Downavg 45.5¢	$58.29	$127.92	+$69.63	54% 4793-4035 (8828)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 93¢	$109.89	$118.1	+$8.21	65% 130645-70397 (201042)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$38.13	$87.93	+$49.79	54% 13761-11752 (25513)
PR prabamCTR	Upavg 25.9¢	$258.49	$84.99	-$173.5	69% 36-16 (52)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$77.11	$36.27	-$40.84	52% 10639-9975 (20614)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 12.2¢	$135.9	$15.06	-$120.83	75% 9961-3335 (13296)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 6.7¢	$5.06	$0.04	-$5.03	59% 63961-45114 (109075)

76marsh

Down

Invested

$3,141.31

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

61%

23-15 (38)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$752.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$787.81

Record

75%

295-99 (394)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,366.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$167.04

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

ByteBadger93

Down

Invested

$402.73

Value

$729.33

PnL

+$326.61

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$308.45

Value

$692.82

PnL

+$384.37

Record

64%

5030-2825 (7855)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$674.55

Value

$648.92

PnL

-$25.63

Record

51%

12360-11859 (24219)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$549.99

Value

$542.97

PnL

-$7.02

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$619

Value

$533.66

PnL

-$85.33

Record

66%

101181-52990 (154171)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$369.62

Value

$385.48

PnL

+$15.86

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$196.68

Value

$292.3

PnL

+$95.62

Record

55%

15067-12471 (27538)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$174.4

Value

$263.54

PnL

+$89.14

Record

53%

10527-9523 (20050)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$304.42

Value

$261.01

PnL

-$43.4

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$151.81

Value

$236.11

PnL

+$84.3

Record

55%

52460-42905 (95365)

almach

Down

Invested

$144.21

Value

$222.36

PnL

+$78.15

Record

55%

50273-41876 (92149)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$120.41

Value

$188.85

PnL

+$68.44

Record

52%

21295-19590 (40885)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$58.29

Value

$127.92

PnL

+$69.63

Record

54%

4793-4035 (8828)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$109.89

Value

$118.1

PnL

+$8.21

Record

65%

130645-70397 (201042)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$38.13

Value

$87.93

PnL

+$49.79

Record

54%

13761-11752 (25513)

prabamCTR

Invested

$258.49

Value

$84.99

PnL

-$173.5

Record

69%

36-16 (52)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$77.11

Value

$36.27

PnL

-$40.84

Record

52%

10639-9975 (20614)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$135.9

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$120.83

Record

75%

9961-3335 (13296)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.03

Record

59%

63961-45114 (109075)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 22 top traders (73%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.