Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (30%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,353

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,809

Combined PnL-$306.53

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$1.8K	$-1.7K	56% 30456-23661 (54117)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR	Downavg 37.2¢	$425.31	$566.26	+$140.95	75% 295-99 (394)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 77.2¢	$344.45	$445.73	+$101.28	66% 101181-52990 (154171)
NIULAI4	Upavg 83.5¢	$342.49	$409.85	+$67.37	75% 9961-3335 (13296)
BY ByteBadger93CTR	Downavg 36.2¢	$285.65	$362.38	+$76.73	55% 1746-1424 (3170)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Downavg 35.9¢	$219.19	$302.01	+$82.82	52% 2180-1978 (4158)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$324.51	$290.66	-$33.85	48% 6887-7490 (14377)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.8¢	$247.77	$158.73	-$89.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$76.73	$131.92	+$55.19
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 22.3¢	$305.78	$0.69	-$305.09	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 32.9¢	$208.53	$0.32	-$208.21	54% 16644-14090 (30734)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Downavg 24.8¢	$93.87	$0.19	-$93.69	55% 15067-12471 (27538)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0	-$0.05	65% 114804-61868 (176672)

THG.

Invested

$3,463.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

56%

30456-23661 (54117)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR

Down

Invested

$425.31

Value

$566.26

PnL

+$140.95

Record

75%

295-99 (394)

Bonereaper

Invested

$344.45

Value

$445.73

PnL

+$101.28

Record

66%

101181-52990 (154171)

NIULAI4

Invested

$342.49

Value

$409.85

PnL

+$67.37

Record

75%

9961-3335 (13296)

ByteBadger93CTR

Down

Invested

$285.65

Value

$362.38

PnL

+$76.73

Record

55%

1746-1424 (3170)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Down

Invested

$219.19

Value

$302.01

PnL

+$82.82

Record

52%

2180-1978 (4158)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$324.51

Value

$290.66

PnL

-$33.85

Record

48%

6887-7490 (14377)

Both legs:

Up$247.7778.8¢-$89.04

Down$76.7328.8¢+$55.19

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$305.78

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$305.09

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$208.53

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$208.21

Record

54%

16644-14090 (30734)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$93.87

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$93.69

Record

55%

15067-12471 (27538)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

114804-61868 (176672)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.