Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$249.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,612

Combined PnL+$223.2

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$472.79

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 47.4¢	$512.39	$695.6	+$183.21	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.2¢	$538.94	$495.83	-$43.1	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 59¢	$393.77	$399.75	+$5.98	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 63.9¢	$363.85	$334.73	-$29.12	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.9¢	$229.31	—	-$229.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$134.54	$334.73	+$200.19
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 43.1¢	$300.38	$350.84	+$50.46	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 57.3¢	$326.84	$328.79	+$1.96	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 72.9¢	$290.51	$288.65	-$1.86	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.1¢	$309.75	$214.21	-$95.54	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 51.6¢	$200.09	—	-$200.09	66% 101027-52913 (153940)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$153.68	$138.78	-$14.9	52% 21108-19265 (40373)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$97.8	—	-$97.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$55.88	$138.78	+$82.9
FairValueMachine	Downavg 49.3¢	$90.94	$139.4	+$48.46	54% 13670-11687 (25357)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$121.46	$127.5	+$6.04	52% 10553-9896 (20449)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$59.08	—	-$59.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$62.38	$127.5	+$65.12
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 60.6¢	$94.56	$108.7	+$14.14	53% 10442-9444 (19886)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 59.2¢	$106.76	$84.79	-$21.97	54% 10136-8487 (18623)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.2¢	$65.71	—	-$65.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$41.05	$84.79	+$43.74
AS asdaefef	Downavg 72.7¢	$76.89	$100.54	+$23.65	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 61.5¢	$138.89	—	-$138.89	55% 52350-42822 (95172)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.3¢	$80.46	$82.73	+$2.27	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 89.1¢	$80.24	$70	-$10.24	56% 60559-47106 (107665)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$91.1	—	-$91.1	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 33.4¢	$90.37	$33.86	-$56.51	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.1¢	$28.83	$33.86	+$5.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$61.54	—	-$61.54
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 92.4¢	$45.48	$49.2	+$3.72	58% 63311-46525 (109836)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$61.16	$42	-$19.16	55% 51695-42149 (93844)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$23.07	$36.91	+$13.84	65% 114590-61630 (176220)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$33.05	$51.17	+$18.11	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 96.3¢	$24.07	$25	+$0.93	63% 42447-25170 (67617)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$512.39

Value

$695.6

PnL

+$183.21

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$538.94

Value

$495.83

PnL

-$43.1

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$393.77

Value

$399.75

PnL

+$5.98

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$363.85

Value

$334.73

PnL

-$29.12

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

Both legs:

Up$229.3163.9¢-$229.31

Down$134.5440.2¢+$200.19

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$300.38

Value

$350.84

PnL

+$50.46

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$326.84

Value

$328.79

PnL

+$1.96

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$290.51

Value

$288.65

PnL

-$1.86

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$309.75

Value

$214.21

PnL

-$95.54

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$200.09

Value

—

PnL

-$200.09

Record

66%

101027-52913 (153940)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$153.68

Value

$138.78

PnL

-$14.9

Record

52%

21108-19265 (40373)

Both legs:

Up$97.865.2¢-$97.8

Down$55.8840.3¢+$82.9

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$90.94

Value

$139.4

PnL

+$48.46

Record

54%

13670-11687 (25357)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.46

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$6.04

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

Both legs:

Up$59.0852.7¢-$59.08

Down$62.3848.9¢+$65.12

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$94.56

Value

$108.7

PnL

+$14.14

Record

53%

10442-9444 (19886)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$106.76

Value

$84.79

PnL

-$21.97

Record

54%

10136-8487 (18623)

Both legs:

Up$65.7159.2¢-$65.71

Down$41.0548.4¢+$43.74

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$76.89

Value

$100.54

PnL

+$23.65

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$138.89

Value

—

PnL

-$138.89

Record

55%

52350-42822 (95172)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$80.46

Value

$82.73

PnL

+$2.27

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$80.24

Value

$70

PnL

-$10.24

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$91.1

Value

—

PnL

-$91.1

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$90.37

Value

$33.86

PnL

-$56.51

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

Both legs:

Down$28.8385.1¢+$5.03

Up$61.5433.4¢-$61.54

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$45.48

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$3.72

Record

58%

63311-46525 (109836)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$61.16

Value

$42

PnL

-$19.16

Record

55%

51695-42149 (93844)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$23.07

Value

$36.91

PnL

+$13.84

Record

65%

114590-61630 (176220)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$33.05

Value

$51.17

PnL

+$18.11

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.07

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.93

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa607ac59...a440b5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794011400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $695.6

+$183.21

ply-pm0

Down — $495.83

-$43.1

asdcaxz

Down — $399.75

+$5.98

pspspsps5

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$29.12

GoodFallen

Down — $350.84

+$50.46

1000monkeys

Down — $328.79

+$1.96

blue.birds

Down — $288.65

-$1.86

CrouchPredictions

Down — $214.21

Bonereaper

Up — $0

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Arbitrage — excluded