Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 31 top traders (52%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,054

Combined PnL$-8.7K

Down16 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares13,398

Combined PnL+$76.81

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$8.7K	$7.7K	$-1.0K	54% 563-489 (1052)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.9¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$4.7K	$7.7K	+$3.0K
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 55.2¢	$4.1K	—	$-4.1K	64% 4855-2763 (7618)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 56.4¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$149.84	63% 60529-34974 (95503)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 59.5¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$200.42	50% 6232-6199 (12431)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 82.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$2.83	66% 100841-52778 (153619)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 52.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$66.26	56% 15758-12405 (28163)
machinelearned	Downavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$45.05	55% 9670-8018 (17688)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 59.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.58	59% 11039-7577 (18616)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 61.3¢	$1.0K	$996.62	-$22.83	51% 11623-11103 (22726)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$925.54	—	-$925.54	52% 10396-9753 (20149)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 37.2¢	$401.82	$823.6	+$421.78	57% 76959-59215 (136174)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 71.3¢	$777.33	$816	+$38.67	53% 10298-9293 (19591)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 66.6¢	$891.49	—	-$891.49	55% 49970-41528 (91498)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 67.3¢	$792.49	—	-$792.49	55% 51445-41800 (93245)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 69¢	$717.51	—	-$717.51	55% 52059-42519 (94578)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.6¢	$435.16	$446	+$10.84	89% 28563-3541 (32104)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 27.5¢	$207.15	$231.87	+$24.72	46% 39778-47548 (87326)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$118.17	—	-$118.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$88.98	$231.87	+$142.89
PB PBot-5ARB<$100	Upavg 27.6¢	$185.53	$225	+$39.47	52% 12109-11097 (23206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$99.09	—	-$99.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$86.43	$225	+$138.57
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$200.36	$261.75	+$61.38	51% 17571-16959 (34530)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$48	—	-$48
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$152.36	$261.75	+$109.38
PA PapeasyCTR	Upavg 53.8¢	$274.63	—	-$274.63	49% 4015-4145 (8160)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 40.2¢	$117	—	-$117	48% 6111-6689 (12800)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 58.4¢	$656.77	—	-$518.8	52% 2118-1950 (4068)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 70.6¢	$184.84	$189.45	+$4.61	57% 9769-7290 (17059)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$51.13	—	-$51.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.6¢	$133.71	$189.45	+$55.74
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 33.3¢	$100.78	—	-$100.78	56% 60165-46729 (106894)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$118.39	$110	-$8.39	54% 16442-13829 (30271)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$32.57	—	-$32.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$85.82	$110	+$24.18

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,692.5

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

563-489 (1052)

Both legs:

Up$3,989.2657.9¢$-4.0K

Down$4,703.2461.2¢+$3.0K

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$4,087.96

Value

—

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

64%

4855-2763 (7618)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,350.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$149.84

Record

63%

60529-34974 (95503)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,280.38

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$200.42

Record

50%

6232-6199 (12431)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,682.79

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$2.83

Record

66%

100841-52778 (153619)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,645.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$66.26

Record

56%

15758-12405 (28163)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,424.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$45.05

Record

55%

9670-8018 (17688)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$1,187.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.58

Record

59%

11039-7577 (18616)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,019.45

Value

$996.62

PnL

-$22.83

Record

51%

11623-11103 (22726)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Invested

$925.54

Value

—

PnL

-$925.54

Record

52%

10396-9753 (20149)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$401.82

Value

$823.6

PnL

+$421.78

Record

57%

76959-59215 (136174)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$777.33

Value

$816

PnL

+$38.67

Record

53%

10298-9293 (19591)

almachCTR

Invested

$891.49

Value

—

PnL

-$891.49

Record

55%

49970-41528 (91498)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$792.49

Value

—

PnL

-$792.49

Record

55%

51445-41800 (93245)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$717.51

Value

—

PnL

-$717.51

Record

55%

52059-42519 (94578)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$435.16

Value

$446

PnL

+$10.84

Record

89%

28563-3541 (32104)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$207.15

Value

$231.87

PnL

+$24.72

Record

46%

39778-47548 (87326)

Both legs:

Up$118.1727.5¢-$118.17

Down$88.9838.4¢+$142.89

PBot-5ARB<$100

Invested

$185.53

Value

$225

PnL

+$39.47

Record

52%

12109-11097 (23206)

Both legs:

Up$99.0927.6¢-$99.09

Down$86.4338.4¢+$138.57

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$200.36

Value

$261.75

PnL

+$61.38

Record

51%

17571-16959 (34530)

Both legs:

Up$4816¢-$48

Down$152.3658.2¢+$109.38

PapeasyCTR

Invested

$274.63

Value

—

PnL

-$274.63

Record

49%

4015-4145 (8160)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$117

Value

—

PnL

-$117

Record

48%

6111-6689 (12800)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$656.77

Value

—

PnL

-$518.8

Record

52%

2118-1950 (4068)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$184.84

Value

$189.45

PnL

+$4.61

Record

57%

9769-7290 (17059)

Both legs:

Up$51.1347.5¢-$51.13

Down$133.7170.6¢+$55.74

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$100.78

Value

—

PnL

-$100.78

Record

56%

60165-46729 (106894)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$118.39

Value

$110

PnL

-$8.39

Record

54%

16442-13829 (30271)

Both legs:

Up$32.5735.5¢-$32.57

Down$85.8278¢+$24.18

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 31 top traders (52%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc48e5fb0...4fb08b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793917800

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $2.2K

-$149.84

ply-pm0

Down — $2.1K

-$200.42

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

-$2.83

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.6K

-$66.26

machinelearned

Down — $1.4K

-$45.05

1000monkeys

Down — $1.2K

-$26.58

blue.birds

Down — $996.62

-$22.83

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

CTR

Up — $0

-$925.54

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