Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.8K

Combined PnL

$-11.9K

Smart Money Signal

17 of 33 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,476

Combined PnL$-14.5K

Up17 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares16,494

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$18.2K	$16.5K	$-1.7K	54% 563-489 (1052)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$10.9K	—	$-10.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$7.4K	$16.5K	+$9.2K
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$4.7K	—	$-4.7K	50% 6232-6199 (12431)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 56.5¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.0K	56% 15744-12391 (28135)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$742.06	55% 9661-8007 (17668)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$1.0K	$3.3K	+$2.3K
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 56.1¢	$2.6K	—	$-2.6K	63% 60529-34974 (95503)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 53.1¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$49.78	59% 11021-7568 (18589)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 51.8¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$316.77	66% 100830-52769 (153599)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$50.7	51% 17566-16958 (34524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.4¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$693	$1.8K	+$1.1K
BL blue.birds	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$22.43	51% 11579-11083 (22662)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 58.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$153.02	52% 10389-9740 (20129)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.12	89% 28523-3534 (32057)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 96.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$27.08	57% 9758-7281 (17039)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 51.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$322.86	53% 10290-9283 (19573)
NIULAI4	Upavg 78.5¢	$894.19	$1.1K	+$200.38	75% 9796-3217 (13013)
BO bosona	Upavg 51.4¢	$484.28	$942.88	+$458.6	55% 51444-41800 (93244)
MO mo-money	Upavg 51.5¢	$477.58	$927.06	+$449.48	55% 52059-42519 (94578)
AL almach	Upavg 50.3¢	$445.11	$884.98	+$439.87	55% 49970-41528 (91498)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 46.3¢	$633.07	—	-$633.07	57% 76959-59215 (136174)
PB PBot-5CTR	Downavg 33.9¢	$366.29	—	-$366.29	52% 12090-11081 (23171)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 53.9¢	$466.65	$479.86	+$13.21	55% 51219-42509 (93728)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$519.81	$459.45	-$60.36	49% 4006-4134 (8140)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.3¢	$296.17	—	-$296.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$223.64	$459.45	+$235.81
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 48.2¢	$476.55	—	-$476.55	48% 6082-6648 (12730)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 42.2¢	$208.47	—	-$208.47	46% 39762-47524 (87286)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 65¢	$298.32	$273.58	-$24.74	66% 130071-67110 (197181)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 73.8¢	$189.77	—	-$189.77	58% 62812-46038 (108850)

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$18,235.54

Value

$16.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

563-489 (1052)

Both legs:

Down$10,853.2470¢$-10.9K

Up$7,382.344.6¢+$9.2K

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$4,716.49

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

50%

6232-6199 (12431)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$4,045.61

Value

—

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

56%

15744-12391 (28135)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,596.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$742.06

Record

55%

9661-8007 (17668)

Both legs:

Down$1,583.4159.5¢$-1.6K

Up$1,013.3930.4¢+$2.3K

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$2,601.3

Value

—

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

63%

60529-34974 (95503)

1000monkeys

Invested

$2,454.59

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$49.78

Record

59%

11021-7568 (18589)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,585.52

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$316.77

Record

66%

100830-52769 (153599)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,749.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$50.7

Record

51%

17566-16958 (34524)

Both legs:

Down$1,056.356.4¢$-1.1K

Up$69338.5¢+$1.1K

blue.birds

Invested

$1,546.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.43

Record

51%

11579-11083 (22662)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$1,389.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$153.02

Record

52%

10389-9740 (20129)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,298.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.12

Record

89%

28523-3534 (32057)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,359.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$27.08

Record

57%

9758-7281 (17039)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$1,055.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$322.86

Record

53%

10290-9283 (19573)

NIULAI4

Invested

$894.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$200.38

Record

75%

9796-3217 (13013)

bosona

Invested

$484.28

Value

$942.88

PnL

+$458.6

Record

55%

51444-41800 (93244)

mo-money

Invested

$477.58

Value

$927.06

PnL

+$449.48

Record

55%

52059-42519 (94578)

almach

Invested

$445.11

Value

$884.98

PnL

+$439.87

Record

55%

49970-41528 (91498)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$633.07

Value

—

PnL

-$633.07

Record

57%

76959-59215 (136174)

PBot-5CTR

Down

Invested

$366.29

Value

—

PnL

-$366.29

Record

52%

12090-11081 (23171)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$466.65

Value

$479.86

PnL

+$13.21

Record

55%

51219-42509 (93728)

PapeasyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$519.81

Value

$459.45

PnL

-$60.36

Record

49%

4006-4134 (8140)

Both legs:

Down$296.1765.3¢-$296.17

Up$223.6448.7¢+$235.81

asdcaxzCTR

Down

Invested

$476.55

Value

—

PnL

-$476.55

Record

48%

6082-6648 (12730)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$208.47

Value

—

PnL

-$208.47

Record

46%

39762-47524 (87286)

asdaefef

Invested

$298.32

Value

$273.58

PnL

-$24.74

Record

66%

130071-67110 (197181)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$189.77

Value

—

PnL

-$189.77

Record

58%

62812-46038 (108850)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 33 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x626995d9...c5473c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793916900

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $0

1000monkeys

Up — $2.4K

-$49.78

Bonereaper

Up — $1.9K

+$316.77

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$50.7

blue.birds

Up — $1.6K

+$22.43

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Up — $1.5K

+$153.02

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