Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$190.08

Smart Money Signal

28 of 32 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,326

Combined PnL-$192.84

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$2.76

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$12.14	74% 104617-36911 (141528)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.4¢	$977.06	$1.1K	+$97.76	54% 16371-13753 (30124)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 79.4¢	$978.07	$855.5	-$122.57	56% 15576-12259 (27835)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 86¢	$815.27	$768.83	-$46.44	48% 5893-6386 (12279)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 95.4¢	$1.1K	$763.33	-$347.64	58% 39676-28685 (68361)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 73.8¢	$494.46	$587.04	+$92.58	52% 20915-19004 (39919)
MO mo-money	Upavg 95.7¢	$544.61	$568.8	+$24.19	55% 52000-42463 (94463)
BO bosona	Upavg 91.2¢	$514.28	$563.87	+$49.59	55% 51374-41732 (93106)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 75.6¢	$566.58	$512.05	-$54.53	66% 100728-52700 (153428)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 68¢	$439.59	$446.92	+$7.32	59% 10896-7502 (18398)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 83.9¢	$375.68	$377.09	+$1.41	51% 11398-10865 (22263)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 73.6¢	$339.87	$317.09	-$22.78	55% 14604-11969 (26573)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$296.29	$360.89	+$64.6	56% 8210-6389 (14599)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$223.51	$360.89	+$137.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.9¢	$72.79	—	-$72.79
machinelearned	Upavg 80.7¢	$201.64	$205.62	+$3.97	55% 9558-7907 (17465)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.6¢	$156.57	$187.38	+$30.81	63% 60351-34793 (95144)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 88.7¢	$201.78	$186.29	-$11.49	65% 129264-69372 (198636)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 71¢	$163.43	$169	+$5.57	52% 9466-8914 (18380)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 83.4¢	$113.1	$130.54	+$17.44	49% 80189-83641 (163830)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 56.7¢	$82.45	$125	+$42.55	53% 10216-9221 (19437)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$117.93	$100.8	-$17.13	56% 9191-7138 (16329)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$59.96	$100.8	+$40.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$57.97	—	-$57.97
AL almach	Upavg 86¢	$86	$100	+$14	55% 49902-41466 (91368)
AS asidjasiodja	Upavg 94.6¢	$113.99	$86	-$16.6	61% 98145-62153 (160298)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$72.54	$78.6	+$6.06	49% 3852-4005 (7857)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 84.9¢	$85.68	$76.54	-$9.14	66% 129742-66917 (196659)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$50.55	$53.5	+$2.95	46% 39632-47314 (86946)

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,964.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$12.14

Record

74%

104617-36911 (141528)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$977.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$97.76

Record

54%

16371-13753 (30124)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$978.07

Value

$855.5

PnL

-$122.57

Record

56%

15576-12259 (27835)

asdcaxz

Invested

$815.27

Value

$768.83

PnL

-$46.44

Record

48%

5893-6386 (12279)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,110.98

Value

$763.33

PnL

-$347.64

Record

58%

39676-28685 (68361)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$494.46

Value

$587.04

PnL

+$92.58

Record

52%

20915-19004 (39919)

mo-money

Invested

$544.61

Value

$568.8

PnL

+$24.19

Record

55%

52000-42463 (94463)

bosona

Invested

$514.28

Value

$563.87

PnL

+$49.59

Record

55%

51374-41732 (93106)

Bonereaper

Invested

$566.58

Value

$512.05

PnL

-$54.53

Record

66%

100728-52700 (153428)

1000monkeys

Invested

$439.59

Value

$446.92

PnL

+$7.32

Record

59%

10896-7502 (18398)

blue.birds

Invested

$375.68

Value

$377.09

PnL

+$1.41

Record

51%

11398-10865 (22263)

GoodFallen

Invested

$339.87

Value

$317.09

PnL

-$22.78

Record

55%

14604-11969 (26573)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$296.29

Value

$360.89

PnL

+$64.6

Record

56%

8210-6389 (14599)

Both legs:

Up$223.5161.9¢+$137.39

Down$72.7951.9¢-$72.79

machinelearned

Invested

$201.64

Value

$205.62

PnL

+$3.97

Record

55%

9558-7907 (17465)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$156.57

Value

$187.38

PnL

+$30.81

Record

63%

60351-34793 (95144)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$201.78

Value

$186.29

PnL

-$11.49

Record

65%

129264-69372 (198636)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$163.43

Value

$169

PnL

+$5.57

Record

52%

9466-8914 (18380)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$113.1

Value

$130.54

PnL

+$17.44

Record

49%

80189-83641 (163830)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$82.45

Value

$125

PnL

+$42.55

Record

53%

10216-9221 (19437)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$117.93

Value

$100.8

PnL

-$17.13

Record

56%

9191-7138 (16329)

Both legs:

Up$59.9659.5¢+$40.84

Down$57.9746.8¢-$57.97

almach

Invested

$86

Value

$100

PnL

+$14

Record

55%

49902-41466 (91368)

asidjasiodja

Invested

$113.99

Value

$86

PnL

-$16.6

Record

61%

98145-62153 (160298)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$72.54

Value

$78.6

PnL

+$6.06

Record

49%

3852-4005 (7857)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$85.68

Value

$76.54

PnL

-$9.14

Record

66%

129742-66917 (196659)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$50.55

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$2.95

Record

46%

39632-47314 (86946)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 32 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x693595e3...fa0e1b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793872200

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $2.0K

+$12.14

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.1K

+$97.76

CrouchPredictions

Up — $855.5

-$122.57

asdcaxz

Up — $768.83

-$46.44

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $763.33

-$347.64

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Up — $587.04

+$92.58

mo-money

Up — $568.8

+$24.19

bosona

Up — $563.87

+$49.59

Bonereaper

Up — $512.05

-$54.53

1000monkeys

Up — $446.92

+$7.32

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