Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Signal

28 of 41 top traders (68%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,122

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up28 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,767

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Down — 32%Up — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47.5¢	$734.36	$1.5K	+$811.47	58% 39529-28562 (68091)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 70.5¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	66% 100522-52543 (153065)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$906.79	$871.4	-$35.39	91% 26816-2525 (29341)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 38.7¢	$663.27	—	-$663.27	50% 6051-6038 (12089)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Upavg 77.1¢	$755.33	—	-$755.33	59% 10726-7392 (18118)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 70¢	$553.42	—	-$553.42	67% 101418-49729 (151147)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 72.3¢	$456.48	$567.2	+$110.71	53% 10110-9120 (19230)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 63.3¢	$501.02	$544.11	+$43.09	51% 9351-8826 (18177)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 81.3¢	$396.32	—	-$396.32	55% 9429-7805 (17234)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 63.7¢	$268.47	—	-$268.47	56% 8938-7015 (15953)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 47.3¢	$82.23	—	-$82.23	52% 11825-10844 (22669)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 74.3¢	$268.72	—	-$268.72	63% 60080-34581 (94661)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 14.5¢	$76.75	—	-$76.75	66% 129314-66696 (196010)
OhioAI	Downavg 44.8¢	$101.54	$159.44	+$57.9	54% 10238-8616 (18854)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 91.6¢	$171.29	—	-$171.29	46% 39450-46985 (86435)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$84.48	—	-$69.58	65% 128786-69038 (197824)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 14.2¢	$17.64	$69.32	+$51.68	52% 93101-87521 (180622)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$93.02	—	-$93.02	57% 12354-9341 (21695)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 44¢	$29.11	$66.16	+$37.05	51% 17466-16901 (34367)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 8.3¢	$5.05	$61	+$55.95	61% 45275-28361 (73636)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 42.2¢	$24.44	$57.99	+$33.55	49% 3706-3824 (7530)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 29.4¢	$21.1	$56.35	+$35.26	58% 62307-45673 (107980)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 13.6¢	$16.22	$52.78	+$55.44	61% 97791-61885 (159676)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$23.94	—	-$23.94	49% 79837-83308 (163145)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$18.72	$50	+$31.28	56% 59702-46302 (106004)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$734.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$811.47

Record

58%

39529-28562 (68091)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$1,295

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

66%

100522-52543 (153065)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$906.79

Value

$871.4

PnL

-$35.39

Record

91%

26816-2525 (29341)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$663.27

Value

—

PnL

-$663.27

Record

50%

6051-6038 (12089)

1000monkeysCTR

Invested

$755.33

Value

—

PnL

-$755.33

Record

59%

10726-7392 (18118)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$553.42

Value

—

PnL

-$553.42

Record

67%

101418-49729 (151147)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$456.48

Value

$567.2

PnL

+$110.71

Record

53%

10110-9120 (19230)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$501.02

Value

$544.11

PnL

+$43.09

Record

51%

9351-8826 (18177)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$396.32

Value

—

PnL

-$396.32

Record

55%

9429-7805 (17234)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$268.47

Value

—

PnL

-$268.47

Record

56%

8938-7015 (15953)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$82.23

Value

—

PnL

-$82.23

Record

52%

11825-10844 (22669)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$268.72

Value

—

PnL

-$268.72

Record

63%

60080-34581 (94661)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$76.75

Value

—

PnL

-$76.75

Record

66%

129314-66696 (196010)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$101.54

Value

$159.44

PnL

+$57.9

Record

54%

10238-8616 (18854)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$171.29

Value

—

PnL

-$171.29

Record

46%

39450-46985 (86435)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$84.48

Value

—

PnL

-$69.58

Record

65%

128786-69038 (197824)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$17.64

Value

$69.32

PnL

+$51.68

Record

52%

93101-87521 (180622)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$93.02

Value

—

PnL

-$93.02

Record

57%

12354-9341 (21695)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$29.11

Value

$66.16

PnL

+$37.05

Record

51%

17466-16901 (34367)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$5.05

Value

$61

PnL

+$55.95

Record

61%

45275-28361 (73636)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$24.44

Value

$57.99

PnL

+$33.55

Record

49%

3706-3824 (7530)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$21.1

Value

$56.35

PnL

+$35.26

Record

58%

62307-45673 (107980)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$16.22

Value

$52.78

PnL

+$55.44

Record

61%

97791-61885 (159676)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$23.94

Value

—

PnL

-$23.94

Record

49%

79837-83308 (163145)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$18.72

Value

$50

PnL

+$31.28

Record

56%

59702-46302 (106004)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 41 top traders (68%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe38a9f35...c21af0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793808600

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.5K

+$811.47

Bonereaper

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.3K

hoodquant

Down — $871.4

ply-pm0

Up — $0

1000monkeys

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$553.42

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $567.2

+$110.71

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down — $544.11

machinelearned

Up — $0

wzbbb

Up — $0