Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$13.4K
$65.88
Smart Money Signal
39 of 55 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$3.18 | 59% 62735-43849 (106584) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$63.92 | 56% 14990-11769 (26759) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $889.38 | $938.99 | +$49.61 | — |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 93.3¢ | $678.38 | $623.26 | -$55.12 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 66.1¢ | $381.36 | $576.82 | +$195.46 | 57% 71941-54757 (126698) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 61.9¢ | $447.61 | — | -$447.61 | 56% 8436-6564 (15000) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 93.9¢ | $417.75 | $399.25 | -$18.5 | — |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $384.47 | $335.08 | -$49.39 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.4¢ | $222.8 | — | -$222.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.2¢ | $161.67 | $335.08 | +$173.41 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 86.7¢ | $381 | $390.44 | +$9.43 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 85.6¢ | $390.61 | $372.98 | -$17.63 | — |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $363.4 | $375.07 | +$11.67 | 50% 5653-5713 (11366) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 40.6¢ | $456.1 | $1.1K | +$667.59 | 58% 38649-27709 (66358) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 67.8¢ | $319.43 | $350 | +$30.57 | 56% 14078-11201 (25279) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 60¢ | $317.3 | $330.74 | +$13.44 | 55% 15834-13203 (29037) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $467.56 | $337.24 | -$130.32 | — |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 94.7¢ | $324.6 | $308.66 | -$15.95 | 54% 8384-7089 (15473) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.6¢ | $338.1 | $295.57 | -$42.53 | — |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 85.2¢ | $336.5 | $305.99 | -$30.51 | — |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $150.6 | $181.98 | +$31.38 | — |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 50¢ | $91.28 | $182.12 | +$90.84 | — |
 machinelearned | Downavg 96.7¢ | $182.18 | $165.27 | -$16.91 | 55% 9037-7459 (16496) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 53.3¢ | $109.49 | $155.25 | +$45.76 | 56% 12794-9854 (22648) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $148.5 | $133.99 | -$14.51 | 67% 100018-48408 (148426) |
13 13897651CTR | Upavg 58.5¢ | $104.98 | — | -$104.98 | 59% 7149-5039 (12188) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $113.74 | $115 | +$1.27 | 93% 24495-1821 (26316) |
Invested
$3,174.83
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$3.18
Record
59%
62735-43849 (106584)
Invested
$1,253.06
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$63.92
Record
56%
14990-11769 (26759)
Invested
$889.38
Value
$938.99
PnL
+$49.61
Record
—
Invested
$678.38
Value
$623.26
PnL
-$55.12
Record
—
Invested
$381.36
Value
$576.82
PnL
+$195.46
Record
57%
71941-54757 (126698)
Invested
$447.61
Value
—
PnL
-$447.61
Record
56%
8436-6564 (15000)
Invested
$417.75
Value
$399.25
PnL
-$18.5
Record
—
Invested
$384.47
Value
$335.08
PnL
-$49.39
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$381
Value
$390.44
PnL
+$9.43
Record
—
Invested
$390.61
Value
$372.98
PnL
-$17.63
Record
—
Invested
$363.4
Value
$375.07
PnL
+$11.67
Record
50%
5653-5713 (11366)
Invested
$456.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$667.59
Record
58%
38649-27709 (66358)
Invested
$319.43
Value
$350
PnL
+$30.57
Record
56%
14078-11201 (25279)
Invested
$317.3
Value
$330.74
PnL
+$13.44
Record
55%
15834-13203 (29037)
Invested
$467.56
Value
$337.24
PnL
-$130.32
Record
—
Invested
$324.6
Value
$308.66
PnL
-$15.95
Record
54%
8384-7089 (15473)
Invested
$338.1
Value
$295.57
PnL
-$42.53
Record
—
Invested
$336.5
Value
$305.99
PnL
-$30.51
Record
—
Invested
$150.6
Value
$181.98
PnL
+$31.38
Record
—
Invested
$91.28
Value
$182.12
PnL
+$90.84
Record
—
machinelearnedInvested
$182.18
Value
$165.27
PnL
-$16.91
Record
55%
9037-7459 (16496)
FairValueMachineInvested
$109.49
Value
$155.25
PnL
+$45.76
Record
56%
12794-9854 (22648)
Invested
$148.5
Value
$133.99
PnL
-$14.51
Record
67%
100018-48408 (148426)
Invested
$104.98
Value
—
PnL
-$104.98
Record
59%
7149-5039 (12188)
Invested
$113.74
Value
$115
PnL
+$1.27
Record
93%
24495-1821 (26316)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894
Down — $938.99
0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359
Down — $623.26
uninformedfloww
Down — $576.82
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $399.25
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $390.44
blue.birds
Down — $372.98