Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$188.45

Smart Money Signal

32 of 43 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up32 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,796

Combined PnL+$336.96

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,641

Combined PnL-$525.41

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 98¢	$656.97	$638	-$18.97	23% 6881-23016 (29897)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.8¢	$341.48	$397.48	+$56	56% 15000-11781 (26781)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 52.2¢	$287.55	$546.97	+$259.42	58% 38668-27726 (66394)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 60.9¢	$204.35	$325.64	+$121.29	52% 2476-2267 (4743)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 94.1¢	$228.6	$213.24	-$15.36	54% 8390-7101 (15491)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 83¢	$245.63	$203	-$42.63	52% 2880-2690 (5570)
ST stepahead	Upavg 60.2¢	$179.14	$168.41	-$10.73	58% 2033-1445 (3478)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 82¢	$229.62	$148.55	-$81.08	52% 2470-2304 (4774)
AL Alpharo28CTR	Downavg 42.8¢	$172.84	—	-$162.04	51% 36962-35404 (72366)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 66.8¢	$148.69	$135	-$13.69	55% 15845-13210 (29055)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 66.3¢	$151.64	$115.83	-$35.81	56% 14087-11210 (25297)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$110.87	$91.75	-$19.12	50% 5664-5720 (11384)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$56.65	$91.75	+$35.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.7¢	$54.22	—	-$54.22
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.6¢	$104.32	$100	-$4.32	67% 100043-48436 (148479)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 90¢	$90	$100	+$10	47% 1791-2023 (3814)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 64¢	$81.15	$90	+$8.85	56% 12805-9860 (22665)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 38.4¢	$190.61	—	-$190.61	58% 105-77 (182)
10 1000monkeys<$100	Upavg 57.9¢	$76.73	$72.73	-$4	74% 1510-542 (2052)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$54.19	$61.97	+$7.78	53% 27647-24498 (52145)
13 13897651	Upavg 56¢	$64.99	$116	+$51.01	59% 7158-5045 (12203)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$58.8	—	-$58.8	53% 2620-2324 (4944)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$46.5	$60.71	+$14.21	55% 18602-15184 (33786)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 96¢	$44.03	$45.86	+$1.83	65% 126695-67719 (194414)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 97¢	$46.5	$44	-$2.4	55% 7876-6432 (14308)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 75.6¢	$37.82	$50	+$12.18	57% 2107-1616 (3723)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$21.75	$36.08	+$14.33	54% 46240-38619 (84859)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$656.97

Value

$638

PnL

-$18.97

Record

23%

6881-23016 (29897)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$341.48

Value

$397.48

PnL

+$56

Record

56%

15000-11781 (26781)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$287.55

Value

$546.97

PnL

+$259.42

Record

58%

38668-27726 (66394)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$204.35

Value

$325.64

PnL

+$121.29

Record

52%

2476-2267 (4743)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$228.6

Value

$213.24

PnL

-$15.36

Record

54%

8390-7101 (15491)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$245.63

Value

$203

PnL

-$42.63

Record

52%

2880-2690 (5570)

stepahead

Invested

$179.14

Value

$168.41

PnL

-$10.73

Record

58%

2033-1445 (3478)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$229.62

Value

$148.55

PnL

-$81.08

Record

52%

2470-2304 (4774)

Alpharo28CTR

Down

Invested

$172.84

Value

—

PnL

-$162.04

Record

51%

36962-35404 (72366)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$148.69

Value

$135

PnL

-$13.69

Record

55%

15845-13210 (29055)

GoodFallen

Invested

$151.64

Value

$115.83

PnL

-$35.81

Record

56%

14087-11210 (25297)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$110.87

Value

$91.75

PnL

-$19.12

Record

50%

5664-5720 (11384)

Both legs:

Up$56.6561.7¢+$35.1

Down$54.2226.7¢-$54.22

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$104.32

Value

$100

PnL

-$4.32

Record

67%

100043-48436 (148479)

asdcaxz

Invested

$90

Value

$100

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

1791-2023 (3814)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$81.15

Value

$90

PnL

+$8.85

Record

56%

12805-9860 (22665)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$190.61

Value

—

PnL

-$190.61

Record

58%

105-77 (182)

1000monkeys<$100

Invested

$76.73

Value

$72.73

PnL

-$4

Record

74%

1510-542 (2052)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$54.19

Value

$61.97

PnL

+$7.78

Record

53%

27647-24498 (52145)

13897651

Invested

$64.99

Value

$116

PnL

+$51.01

Record

59%

7158-5045 (12203)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.8

Value

—

PnL

-$58.8

Record

53%

2620-2324 (4944)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$60.71

PnL

+$14.21

Record

55%

18602-15184 (33786)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$44.03

Value

$45.86

PnL

+$1.83

Record

65%

126695-67719 (194414)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$44

PnL

-$2.4

Record

55%

7876-6432 (14308)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$37.82

Value

$50

PnL

+$12.18

Record

57%

2107-1616 (3723)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$14.33

Record

54%

46240-38619 (84859)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 43 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x922d7f84...a78da9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793596800

Traders in this Market

Hcrystallash

Up — $638

-$18.97

CrouchPredictions

Up — $397.48

+$56

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $546.97

+$259.42

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Up — $325.64

+$121.29

sfkjbsr457

Up — $213.24

-$15.36

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Up — $203

-$42.63

stepahead

Up — $168.41

-$10.73

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Up — $148.55

-$81.08

Alpharo28

CTR

Down — $0

-$162.04

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $135

-$13.69

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