Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (76%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$170.1

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 100¢

+51% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,537

Combined PnL+$212.51

Down4 traders

Total Value$83.73

Total Shares312

Combined PnL-$42.41

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 65.4¢	$377.89	$368.56	-$9.33	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67.6¢	$302.84	$360.55	+$57.71	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 32.8¢	$363.33	$351.75	-$11.58	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$161.06	$262.36	+$101.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$202.27	$89.39	-$112.88
machinelearned	Upavg 62.4¢	$204.79	$319.19	+$114.4	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 65.3¢	$110.48	$155.45	+$44.97	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.8¢	$101.64	$100	-$1.65	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$102.95	$98.12	-$4.84	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$58.08	$77.88	+$19.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$44.87	$20.24	-$24.64
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$91.03	$67.29	-$23.74	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 85¢	$52.8	$53.11	+$0.31	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$44.51	$42.96	+$5.25	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 65¢	$39	$39.3	+$0.3	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$14	$14.22	+$0.22	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 40.5¢	$20.2	$10.08	-$10.12	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 66¢	$6.6	$7.25	+$0.65	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$5	$5.78	+$0.78	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 85¢	$4.5	$4.53	+$0.03	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 85¢	$4.89	$4.51	-$0.38	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.28	+$0.03	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 8.5¢	$9.91	$0.59	-$9.32	46% 38677-45770 (84447)

ply-pm0

Invested

$377.89

Value

$368.56

PnL

-$9.33

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$302.84

Value

$360.55

PnL

+$57.71

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$363.33

Value

$351.75

PnL

-$11.58

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

Both legs:

Up$161.0652.5¢+$101.3

Down$202.2732.8¢-$112.88

machinelearned

Invested

$204.79

Value

$319.19

PnL

+$114.4

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$110.48

Value

$155.45

PnL

+$44.97

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

GoodFallen

Invested

$101.64

Value

$100

PnL

-$1.65

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$102.95

Value

$98.12

PnL

-$4.84

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Both legs:

Up$58.0866¢+$19.8

Down$44.8725.5¢-$24.64

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$91.03

Value

$67.29

PnL

-$23.74

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$53.11

PnL

+$0.31

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$44.51

Value

$42.96

PnL

+$5.25

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$39.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$14.22

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.2

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$10.12

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.78

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$0.38

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.91

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$9.32

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.