Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

17 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Up (74%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$107.36

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,911

Combined PnL-$76.34

Down6 traders

Total Value$17.2

Total Shares861

Combined PnL-$31.02

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 78.3¢	$645.89	$565.04	-$80.85	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 78.5¢	$273.98	$281.25	+$7.27	55% 15793-13173 (28966)
BoneOhio	Upavg 85.5¢	$218.14	$225.73	+$7.59	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 78.5¢	$158.85	$162.29	+$3.44	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 82.6¢	$128.26	$138.41	+$10.16	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$83.05	$73.45	-$9.6	56% 14039-11169 (25208)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$91.58	$71.26	-$20.31	56% 12755-9823 (22578)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 88¢	$55.51	$56.97	+$1.46	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88¢	$39.6	$33.98	-$5.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$15.91	$22.99	+$7.08
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$50.25	$50.96	+$0.72	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$47.55	$48.68	+$1.13	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90.7¢	$45.01	$48.39	+$3.38	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 84.4¢	$48.82	$47.08	+$1.66	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 78¢	$45	$43.63	-$1.38	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 88.6¢	$34.54	$34.48	-$0.06	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 94.5¢	$32.38	$34.11	+$1.73	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 88¢	$17.16	$17.26	+$0.1	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$10.74	$10.61	-$0.14	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$13	$5.75	-$7.25	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 69¢	$4.38	$3.21	-$1.17	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$17.43	$3.11	-$14.33	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 8.6¢	$10.25	$2.97	-$7.28	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 23.5¢	$2.5	$2.71	+$0.21	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$3.89	$1.39	-$2.5	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.28	+$0.13	56% 58635-45291 (103926)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$645.89

Value

$565.04

PnL

-$80.85

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$273.98

Value

$281.25

PnL

+$7.27

Record

55%

15793-13173 (28966)

BoneOhio

Invested

$218.14

Value

$225.73

PnL

+$7.59

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$158.85

Value

$162.29

PnL

+$3.44

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

ply-pm0

Invested

$128.26

Value

$138.41

PnL

+$10.16

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$83.05

Value

$73.45

PnL

-$9.6

Record

56%

14039-11169 (25208)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$91.58

Value

$71.26

PnL

-$20.31

Record

56%

12755-9823 (22578)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$55.51

Value

$56.97

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Both legs:

Up$39.688¢-$5.63

Down$15.9117¢+$7.08

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$50.96

PnL

+$0.72

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$47.55

Value

$48.68

PnL

+$1.13

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$45.01

Value

$48.39

PnL

+$3.38

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$48.82

Value

$47.08

PnL

+$1.66

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$43.63

PnL

-$1.38

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$34.54

Value

$34.48

PnL

-$0.06

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$32.38

Value

$34.11

PnL

+$1.73

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$17.16

Value

$17.26

PnL

+$0.1

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$10.61

PnL

-$0.14

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$7.25

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$1.17

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.43

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$14.33

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.25

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$7.28

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.89

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$2.5

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.13

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 23 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.