Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 71%
$319.36
-$689.94
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 73.7¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | 67% 103645-51895 (155540) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 70.9¢ | $215.35 | — | -$215.35 | 55% 52067-42543 (94610) |
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 77.3¢ | $469.66 | — | -$469.66 | 54% 3943-3319 (7262) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR | Upavg 72.7¢ | $216.26 | — | -$157.29 | 13% 19669-136223 (155892) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $70.54 | — | -$70.54 | 54% 50744-42367 (93111) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 13.5¢ | $7.44 | $54.99 | +$55.98 | 55% 52878-43324 (96202) |
GH ghorrock | Downavg 26.4¢ | $35.33 | $264.37 | +$229.03 | 57% 24685-18276 (42961) |
 justdance | Downavg 31.6¢ | $825.61 | — | +$1.8K | 52% 3365-3146 (6511) |
Invested
$1,848.1
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
67%
103645-51895 (155540)
Invested
$215.35
Value
—
PnL
-$215.35
Record
55%
52067-42543 (94610)
Invested
$469.66
Value
—
PnL
-$469.66
Record
54%
3943-3319 (7262)
Invested
$216.26
Value
—
PnL
-$157.29
Record
13%
19669-136223 (155892)
Invested
$70.54
Value
—
PnL
-$70.54
Record
54%
50744-42367 (93111)
Invested
$7.44
Value
$54.99
PnL
+$55.98
Record
55%
52878-43324 (96202)
Invested
$35.33
Value
$264.37
PnL
+$229.03
Record
57%
24685-18276 (42961)
justdanceInvested
$825.61
Value
—
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
52%
3365-3146 (6511)