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justdanceDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.4K
Combined PnL
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,548
Combined PnL$-2.1K
Down2 traders
Total Value$808.26
Total Shares808
Combined PnL+$591.61
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 63.5¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 67% 103643-51892 (155535) |
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 72.8¢ | $657.09 | — | -$657.09 | 55% 3933-3280 (7213) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $461.82 | $546.76 | +$84.94 | 13% 19667-136223 (155890) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.8¢ | $284.53 | — | -$341.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.1¢ | $208.37 | $546.76 | +$426.72 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 73¢ | $189.91 | — | -$189.91 | 55% 52063-42542 (94605) |
justdance | Downavg 23.9¢ | $94.2 | $393.81 | +$299.61 | 52% 3365-3146 (6511) |
GH ghorrock | Downavg 29.5¢ | $517.8 | $414.45 | +$292 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTRInvested
$1,300.44
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
67%
103643-51892 (155535)
AN
Anon455CTRInvested
$657.09
Value
—
PnL
-$657.09
Record
55%
3933-3280 (7213)
HS
HsilverbasherARB<$100Invested
$461.82
Value
$546.76
PnL
+$84.94
Record
13%
19667-136223 (155890)
Both legs:
Up$284.5367.8¢-$341.78
Down$208.3738.1¢+$426.72
BO
bosonaCTRInvested
$189.91
Value
—
PnL
-$189.91
Record
55%
52063-42542 (94605)
justdanceInvested
$94.2
Value
$393.81
PnL
+$299.61
Record
52%
3365-3146 (6511)
GH
ghorrockInvested
$517.8
Value
$414.45
PnL
+$292
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4d2af2cc...fc94df
Slug
btc-updown-4h-1794142800