Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

21 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (72%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$782.53

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,972

Combined PnL-$171.73

Down8 traders

Total Value$818.83

Total Shares2,511

Combined PnL-$610.8

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 74.6¢	$1.2K	$951.29	-$211.67	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 56.2¢	$581.19	$689.94	+$108.75	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$609.88	-$499.65	49% 2596-2668 (5264)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$506.77	$510.49	+$3.73	98% 4700-98 (4798)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$504.1	$502.2	+$0.59	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$249.02	$291.35	+$42.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$253.13	$210.85	-$41.76
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71¢	$802.18	$465.15	-$94.72	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
AL almach	Upavg 71.5¢	$170.27	$213.25	+$42.98	52% 1730-1622 (3352)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 88.4¢	$191.92	$189.03	-$2.89	53% 3147-2839 (5986)
BO bosona	Upavg 54.2¢	$129.69	$175.37	+$45.68	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
RL RLWG	Upavg 51.5¢	$120	$127.38	+$7.37	63% 1999-1169 (3168)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 38.3¢	$104	$91	-$5.26	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$65.59	$83.91	+$18.32	52% 1741-1612 (3353)
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 30.9¢	$185.47	$79.95	-$17.68	57% 5242-3886 (9128)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.6¢	$58.15	$58.78	+$0.63	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 95¢	$152.2	$51.14	-$4.06	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 86¢	$87.63	$49.97	-$32.06	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 82.4¢	$76.44	$46.54	-$23.01	58% 522-375 (897)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$59.8	$45.26	-$14.54	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.1¢	$29.8	$24.86	-$4.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$30	$20.4	-$9.6
ohioism<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$54.11	$42.9	-$11.21	47% 2539-2808 (5347)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 93.6¢	$37.48	$35.03	-$2.46	54% 1107-960 (2067)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$46.1	$30.2	-$7.98	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 16.1¢	$24.62	$25.48	+$0.87	60% 4369-2959 (7328)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 85¢	$21.25	$16.5	-$4.75	70% 1911-827 (2738)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$15.61	$15.64	+$0.13	65% 2926-1596 (4522)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$13.75	$10.39	-$3.36	50% 2955-2954 (5909)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,239.66

Value

$951.29

PnL

-$211.67

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$581.19

Value

$689.94

PnL

+$108.75

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$1,124.52

Value

$609.88

PnL

-$499.65

Record

49%

2596-2668 (5264)

hoodquant

Invested

$506.77

Value

$510.49

PnL

+$3.73

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$504.1

Value

$502.2

PnL

+$0.59

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Up$249.0250¢+$42.35

Down$253.1349.8¢-$41.76

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$802.18

Value

$465.15

PnL

-$94.72

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

almach

Invested

$170.27

Value

$213.25

PnL

+$42.98

Record

52%

1730-1622 (3352)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$191.92

Value

$189.03

PnL

-$2.89

Record

53%

3147-2839 (5986)

bosona

Invested

$129.69

Value

$175.37

PnL

+$45.68

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

RLWG

Invested

$120

Value

$127.38

PnL

+$7.37

Record

63%

1999-1169 (3168)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$104

Value

$91

PnL

-$5.26

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$65.59

Value

$83.91

PnL

+$18.32

Record

52%

1741-1612 (3353)

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$185.47

Value

$79.95

PnL

-$17.68

Record

57%

5242-3886 (9128)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$58.15

Value

$58.78

PnL

+$0.63

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$152.2

Value

$51.14

PnL

-$4.06

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$87.63

Value

$49.97

PnL

-$32.06

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$76.44

Value

$46.54

PnL

-$23.01

Record

58%

522-375 (897)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$59.8

Value

$45.26

PnL

-$14.54

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

Both legs:

Up$29.879.1¢-$4.94

Down$3050¢-$9.6

ohioism<$100

Invested

$54.11

Value

$42.9

PnL

-$11.21

Record

47%

2539-2808 (5347)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$37.48

Value

$35.03

PnL

-$2.46

Record

54%

1107-960 (2067)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$46.1

Value

$30.2

PnL

-$7.98

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.62

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$0.87

Record

60%

4369-2959 (7328)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$4.75

Record

70%

1911-827 (2738)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$15.61

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$0.13

Record

65%

2926-1596 (4522)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$13.75

Value

$10.39

PnL

-$3.36

Record

50%

2955-2954 (5909)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.