Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 29 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,166

Combined PnL+$681.78

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,903

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.81	98% 4700-98 (4798)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 30.4¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 26.6¢	$239.08	$897.66	+$658.58	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 81.9¢	$824.19	—	-$824.19	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$553.65	$466.9	-$86.75	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.3¢	$420.33	—	-$420.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$133.32	$466.9	+$333.58
HC HcrystallashCTR	Upavg 51.5¢	$913.53	—	-$885.38	57% 5242-3886 (9128)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 65.8¢	$540.14	—	-$510.74	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.4¢	$519.96	—	-$490.61	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 92.5¢	$484	$433.33	-$48.1	46% 341-399 (740)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 81¢	$405	—	-$405	52% 1730-1622 (3352)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 49.4¢	$283.72	—	-$283.72	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 81¢	$557.68	—	-$557.68	52% 1741-1612 (3353)
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 79.5¢	$201.45	—	-$201.45	63% 1999-1169 (3168)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$208.96	$119.73	-$89.23	53% 3147-2839 (5986)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.5¢	$149.47	—	-$149.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$59.49	$119.73	+$60.24
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 64.3¢	$96.44	$132.97	+$36.53	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$106.66	$100	-$6.66	48% 971-1037 (2008)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.7¢	$80.46	—	-$80.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$26.2	$100	+$73.8
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 41.6¢	$89.11	$90.7	+$5.97	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 89.5¢	$90.18	$77.32	-$12.86	54% 1107-960 (2067)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$76.04	$46	-$30.04	48% 2635-2900 (5535)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.5¢	$27.36	$46	+$18.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$48.68	—	-$48.68
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 80.5¢	$101.39	—	-$95.56	48% 2616-2848 (5464)
AL Alpharo28CTR	Upavg 72.3¢	$128.12	—	-$128.12	58% 522-375 (897)
AA aaa221CTR	Upavg 73¢	$133.08	—	-$108.65	60% 4369-2959 (7328)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$38.44	—	-$38.44	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 94.7¢	$54.9	$36.13	-$18.77	50% 2955-2954 (5909)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$82.13	$34.33	+$20.41	62% 4812-2936 (7748)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,367.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.81

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$1,042.93

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$239.08

Value

$897.66

PnL

+$658.58

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$824.19

Value

—

PnL

-$824.19

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$553.65

Value

$466.9

PnL

-$86.75

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

Both legs:

Up$420.3351.3¢-$420.33

Down$133.3228.6¢+$333.58

HcrystallashCTR

Invested

$913.53

Value

—

PnL

-$885.38

Record

57%

5242-3886 (9128)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$540.14

Value

—

PnL

-$510.74

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$519.96

Value

—

PnL

-$490.61

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$484

Value

$433.33

PnL

-$48.1

Record

46%

341-399 (740)

almachCTR

Invested

$405

Value

—

PnL

-$405

Record

52%

1730-1622 (3352)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$283.72

Value

—

PnL

-$283.72

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$557.68

Value

—

PnL

-$557.68

Record

52%

1741-1612 (3353)

RLWGCTR

Invested

$201.45

Value

—

PnL

-$201.45

Record

63%

1999-1169 (3168)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$208.96

Value

$119.73

PnL

-$89.23

Record

53%

3147-2839 (5986)

Both legs:

Up$149.4783.5¢-$149.47

Down$59.4949.7¢+$60.24

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$96.44

Value

$132.97

PnL

+$36.53

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$106.66

Value

$100

PnL

-$6.66

Record

48%

971-1037 (2008)

Both legs:

Invested

$89.11

Value

$90.7

PnL

+$5.97

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$90.18

Value

$77.32

PnL

-$12.86

Record

54%

1107-960 (2067)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$76.04

Value

$46

PnL

-$30.04

Record

48%

2635-2900 (5535)

Both legs:

Down$27.3659.5¢+$18.64

Up$48.6857.3¢-$48.68

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$101.39

Value

—

PnL

-$95.56

Record

48%

2616-2848 (5464)

Alpharo28CTR

Invested

$128.12

Value

—

PnL

-$128.12

Record

58%

522-375 (897)

aaa221CTR

Invested

$133.08

Value

—

PnL

-$108.65

Record

60%

4369-2959 (7328)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$38.44

Value

—

PnL

-$38.44

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$54.9

Value

$36.13

PnL

-$18.77

Record

50%

2955-2954 (5909)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$82.13

Value

$34.33

PnL

+$20.41

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 29 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x07dabc3f...8ac385

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794783600

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$13.81

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.0K

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $897.66

bosona

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Hcrystallash

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down — $433.33

almach

Up — $0