Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,885

Combined PnL+$977.38

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,096

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 68.2¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$770.81	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 28.9¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$727.54	$628.62	-$98.92	47% 1221-1358 (2579)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$246.65	$628.62	+$381.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$480.89	—	-$480.89
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$725.67	$733	+$7.33	98% 4700-98 (4798)
ST stepahead	Upavg 55.3¢	$721.3	$653.67	-$67.63	55% 4670-3764 (8434)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Downavg 25¢	$951.92	$155	-$796.92	63% 1999-1169 (3168)
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$868.92	—	-$868.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$83	$155	+$72
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 55.4¢	$511.47	$555.97	+$53.66	57% 5242-3886 (9128)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$505.1	$490.01	-$10.2	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$255.1	—	-$255.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490.01	+$244.9
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72.2¢	$346.24	$256	-$15.94	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Upavg 72.6¢	$160.67	$221.34	+$60.67	57% 158-117 (275)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 59.3¢	$154.26	$207.66	+$62.2	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 68.4¢	$119.75	$175	+$55.25	48% 2616-2848 (5464)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 38.1¢	$162.35	—	-$162.35	48% 971-1037 (2008)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 44.8¢	$502.3	—	-$502.3	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 65.1¢	$155.58	$176.38	+$20.8	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 68.5¢	$114.11	$107.31	-$5.36	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$87.5	—	-$87.5	58% 522-375 (897)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 55¢	$52.73	$60	+$7.27	52% 5253-4908 (10161)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$77.41	$46	-$31.41	53% 3147-2839 (5986)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$43.24	—	-$43.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$34.17	$46	+$11.83
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 81¢	$46.83	$46.43	-$0.2	50% 2955-2954 (5909)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 84.1¢	$33.6	$35	+$1.55	54% 1107-960 (2067)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$22.74	$34.38	+$18.85	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 77¢	$30.75	$25	-$2.3	48% 2635-2900 (5535)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 95¢	$23.75	$25	+$1.25	70% 1911-827 (2738)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$15.25	$21.28	+$6.03	65% 2926-1596 (4522)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,771.05

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$770.81

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$1,664.91

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$727.54

Value

$628.62

PnL

-$98.92

Record

47%

1221-1358 (2579)

Both legs:

Up$246.6539.2¢+$381.97

Down$480.8947.2¢-$480.89

hoodquant

Invested

$725.67

Value

$733

PnL

+$7.33

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

stepahead

Invested

$721.3

Value

$653.67

PnL

-$67.63

Record

55%

4670-3764 (8434)

RLWGARB<$100

Down

Invested

$951.92

Value

$155

PnL

-$796.92

Record

63%

1999-1169 (3168)

Both legs:

Down$868.9225¢-$868.92

Up$8353.5¢+$72

Hcrystallash

Invested

$511.47

Value

$555.97

PnL

+$53.66

Record

57%

5242-3886 (9128)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.1

Value

$490.01

PnL

-$10.2

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Down$255.150¢-$255.1

Up$24550¢+$244.9

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$346.24

Value

$256

PnL

-$15.94

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Invested

$160.67

Value

$221.34

PnL

+$60.67

Record

57%

158-117 (275)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$154.26

Value

$207.66

PnL

+$62.2

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$119.75

Value

$175

PnL

+$55.25

Record

48%

2616-2848 (5464)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Down

Invested

$162.35

Value

—

PnL

-$162.35

Record

48%

971-1037 (2008)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$502.3

Value

—

PnL

-$502.3

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

asdcaxz

Invested

$155.58

Value

$176.38

PnL

+$20.8

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

asdaefef

Invested

$114.11

Value

$107.31

PnL

-$5.36

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$87.5

Value

—

PnL

-$87.5

Record

58%

522-375 (897)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$52.73

Value

$60

PnL

+$7.27

Record

52%

5253-4908 (10161)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.41

Value

$46

PnL

-$31.41

Record

53%

3147-2839 (5986)

Both legs:

Down$43.2464.5¢-$43.24

Up$34.1774.3¢+$11.83

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$46.83

Value

$46.43

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

2955-2954 (5909)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$35

PnL

+$1.55

Record

54%

1107-960 (2067)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$22.74

Value

$34.38

PnL

+$18.85

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$30.75

Value

$25

PnL

-$2.3

Record

48%

2635-2900 (5535)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$23.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

70%

1911-827 (2738)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$21.28

PnL

+$6.03

Record

65%

2926-1596 (4522)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 30 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdc740f73...690af1

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794782700

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $2.5K

+$770.81

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $733

+$7.33

stepahead

Up — $653.67

-$67.63

RLWG

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$796.92

Hcrystallash

Up — $555.97

+$53.66

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$10.2

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $256

-$15.94

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Up — $221.34

+$60.67

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