Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 85¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Up16¢Down84¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$158.6

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 84.5¢

+21% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up16%

Down85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,390

Combined PnL-$138.39

Up7 traders

Total Value$272.93

Total Shares811

Combined PnL-$20.2

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$742.5	$829.85	+$87.35	47% 1217-1346 (2563)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$297.61	$480.38	+$182.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$444.89	$349.48	-$95.41
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$518.78	$496.45	-$1.21	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$247.83	$332.6	+$87.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$252.24	$163.85	-$88.81
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$585.94	$476.82	-$87.96	57% 5234-3877 (9111)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$251.15	$367.72	+$116.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.6¢	$304.33	$109.1	-$204.53
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$430.42	$389.05	-$7.77	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.9¢	$131.79	$249.16	+$123.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$271.42	$139.89	-$131.53
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$347.5	$315.39	-$32.11	55% 4661-3757 (8418)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$190.86	$230.29	+$39.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$156.63	$85.1	-$71.53
AL almach	Downavg 83¢	$302.68	$288.1	-$14.59	52% 1719-1616 (3335)
MO mo-money	Downavg 82.5¢	$398.13	$268.03	-$130.1	52% 1731-1604 (3335)
BO bosona	Downavg 58.9¢	$170.13	$168.92	-$1.22	51% 4983-4719 (9702)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 18.3¢	$111.28	$127.95	+$16.67	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$90.69	$102.75	+$12.06	49% 966-1024 (1990)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$37.51	$52.95	+$15.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$53.18	$49.8	-$3.38
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$166.67	$100.49	+$6.98	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$51.85	$68.99	+$16.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$44.55	$31.5	-$9.06
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$48.84	$55.04	+$6.2	48% 2621-2880 (5501)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48¢	$28.8	$44.1	+$15.3	44% 2484-3215 (5699)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$38.37	$38.76	+$0.39	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 59¢	$35.4	$35.1	-$0.3	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 62¢	$33.65	$32.38	-$1.28	48% 2593-2832 (5425)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$50.47	$32.34	-$18.13	52% 5242-4903 (10145)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 75¢	$44.98	$30.83	-$14.15	53% 3129-2827 (5956)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$34.08	$26.52	-$4.59	66% 4097-2069 (6166)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 53¢	$26.5	$24.75	-$1.75	51% 2264-2146 (4410)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 47.3¢	$24.4	$22.45	-$1.95	63% 1994-1162 (3156)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$18.19	$21.28	+$3.09	39% 821-1310 (2131)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$62.28	$21.11	+$1.31	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$23.54	$18.52	-$3.22	50% 2938-2929 (5867)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 80¢	$20	$18.38	-$1.63	70% 1893-822 (2715)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$742.5

Value

$829.85

PnL

+$87.35

Record

47%

1217-1346 (2563)

Both legs:

Down$297.6141.8¢+$182.76

Up$444.8941.4¢-$95.41

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$518.78

Value

$496.45

PnL

-$1.21

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Down$247.8350.3¢+$87.6

Up$252.2450¢-$88.81

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$585.94

Value

$476.82

PnL

-$87.96

Record

57%

5234-3877 (9111)

Both legs:

Down$251.1554¢+$116.57

Up$304.3358.6¢-$204.53

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$430.42

Value

$389.05

PnL

-$7.77

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

Both legs:

Down$131.7938.9¢+$123.76

Up$271.4251.4¢-$131.53

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$347.5

Value

$315.39

PnL

-$32.11

Record

55%

4661-3757 (8418)

Both legs:

Down$190.8655.9¢+$39.42

Up$156.6359.8¢-$71.53

almach

Down

Invested

$302.68

Value

$288.1

PnL

-$14.59

Record

52%

1719-1616 (3335)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$398.13

Value

$268.03

PnL

-$130.1

Record

52%

1731-1604 (3335)

bosona

Down

Invested

$170.13

Value

$168.92

PnL

-$1.22

Record

51%

4983-4719 (9702)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$111.28

Value

$127.95

PnL

+$16.67

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$90.69

Value

$102.75

PnL

+$12.06

Record

49%

966-1024 (1990)

Both legs:

Down$37.5141.4¢+$15.44

Up$53.1844.3¢-$3.38

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.67

Value

$100.49

PnL

+$6.98

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

Both legs:

Down$51.8551.5¢+$16.04

Up$44.5544.5¢-$9.06

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$48.84

Value

$55.04

PnL

+$6.2

Record

48%

2621-2880 (5501)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$28.8

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$15.3

Record

44%

2484-3215 (5699)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$38.37

Value

$38.76

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$35.4

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$33.65

Value

$32.38

PnL

-$1.28

Record

48%

2593-2832 (5425)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$50.47

Value

$32.34

PnL

-$18.13

Record

52%

5242-4903 (10145)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$44.98

Value

$30.83

PnL

-$14.15

Record

53%

3129-2827 (5956)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$34.08

Value

$26.52

PnL

-$4.59

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$26.5

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

51%

2264-2146 (4410)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$24.4

Value

$22.45

PnL

-$1.95

Record

63%

1994-1162 (3156)

flippingsharks<$100

Down

Invested

$18.19

Value

$21.28

PnL

+$3.09

Record

39%

821-1310 (2131)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$62.28

Value

$21.11

PnL

+$1.31

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$23.54

Value

$18.52

PnL

-$3.22

Record

50%

2938-2929 (5867)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$20

Value

$18.38

PnL

-$1.63

Record

70%

1893-822 (2715)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.