Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$320.67

Smart Money Signal

24 of 33 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,202

Combined PnL+$373.83

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$694.5

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 73.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$209.74	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$15.54	51% 2264-2146 (4410)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 86.9¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$190.19	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$20.45	98% 4661-98 (4759)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 59.3¢	$847.36	$828.63	+$26.83	57% 5234-3877 (9111)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 66.4¢	$686.42	$755.96	+$72.08	47% 1217-1346 (2563)
ST stepahead	Upavg 62.7¢	$616.4	$571.34	-$45.06	55% 4661-3757 (8418)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 48.8¢	$529.43	—	-$492.05	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 77.8¢	$274.96	$300.21	+$30.75	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
AL almach	Upavg 70¢	$162.35	$216.46	+$54.12	52% 1719-1616 (3335)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 62¢	$206.9	$193	-$13.9	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Upavg 75.9¢	$190	$140	-$50	63% 1994-1162 (3156)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.9¢	$106.3	$140	+$33.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 10¢	$83.7	—	-$83.7
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 43.4¢	$106.86	$139.99	+$33.13	49% 966-1024 (1990)
LI Little-big	Upavg 39.3¢	$55.02	$139.96	+$84.93	51% 1171-1112 (2283)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 56.1¢	$67.3	$120	+$52.7	58% 513-370 (883)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 39.2¢	$50.78	—	-$50.78	44% 2484-3215 (5699)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$68.37	—	-$68.37	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 89.2¢	$58.38	$65.45	+$7.07	57% 155-117 (272)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$54.23	$65.08	+$10.85	52% 5242-4903 (10145)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 8.1¢	$35.98	$29	-$6.98	51% 4983-4719 (9702)
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.1¢	$21.34	—	-$21.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$14.64	$29	+$14.36
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$57.45	$57.32	+$4.17	66% 4097-2069 (6166)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$90	$30	-$60	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$70.95	—	-$70.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$19.05	$30	+$10.95
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 75¢	$35.2	$44	+$8.8	52% 1731-1604 (3335)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 74¢	$26.64	$36	+$9.36	59% 1194-845 (2039)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$54.91	$31.49	+$9.85	62% 4780-2916 (7696)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,709.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$209.74

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,538.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.54

Record

51%

2264-2146 (4410)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$1,266.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$190.19

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,024.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$20.45

Record

98%

4661-98 (4759)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$847.36

Value

$828.63

PnL

+$26.83

Record

57%

5234-3877 (9111)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$686.42

Value

$755.96

PnL

+$72.08

Record

47%

1217-1346 (2563)

stepahead

Invested

$616.4

Value

$571.34

PnL

-$45.06

Record

55%

4661-3757 (8418)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$529.43

Value

—

PnL

-$492.05

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

asdcaxz

Invested

$274.96

Value

$300.21

PnL

+$30.75

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

almach

Invested

$162.35

Value

$216.46

PnL

+$54.12

Record

52%

1719-1616 (3335)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$206.9

Value

$193

PnL

-$13.9

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

RLWGARB<$100

Invested

$190

Value

$140

PnL

-$50

Record

63%

1994-1162 (3156)

Both legs:

Up$106.375.9¢+$33.7

Down$83.710¢-$83.7

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$106.86

Value

$139.99

PnL

+$33.13

Record

49%

966-1024 (1990)

Little-big

Invested

$55.02

Value

$139.96

PnL

+$84.93

Record

51%

1171-1112 (2283)

Alpharo28

Invested

$67.3

Value

$120

PnL

+$52.7

Record

58%

513-370 (883)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.78

Value

—

PnL

-$50.78

Record

44%

2484-3215 (5699)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$68.37

Value

—

PnL

-$68.37

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$58.38

Value

$65.45

PnL

+$7.07

Record

57%

155-117 (272)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$54.23

Value

$65.08

PnL

+$10.85

Record

52%

5242-4903 (10145)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$35.98

Value

$29

PnL

-$6.98

Record

51%

4983-4719 (9702)

Both legs:

Down$21.348.1¢-$21.34

Up$14.6450.5¢+$14.36

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$57.45

Value

$57.32

PnL

+$4.17

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90

Value

$30

PnL

-$60

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

Both legs:

Down$70.9548.9¢-$70.95

Up$19.0563.5¢+$10.95

mo-money<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$44

PnL

+$8.8

Record

52%

1731-1604 (3335)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$26.64

Value

$36

PnL

+$9.36

Record

59%

1194-845 (2039)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$54.91

Value

$31.49

PnL

+$9.85

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 33 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbc915148...d86f31

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794780900

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $1.5K

-$209.74

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.6K

+$15.54

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $1.5K

+$190.19

hoodquant

Up — $1.0K

+$20.45

Hcrystallash

Up — $828.63

+$26.83

CrouchPredictions

Up — $755.96

+$72.08

stepahead

Up — $571.34

-$45.06

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$492.05

asdcaxz

Up — $300.21

+$30.75

almach

Up — $216.46

+$54.12

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