Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 82%
1 arb excluded
$6.0K
-$99.73
Smart Money Signal
23 of 28 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$28.28 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$98.58 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 54.6¢ | $803.54 | $771.57 | -$31.97 | 57% 5234-3877 (9111) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 37.8¢ | $522.54 | — | -$522.39 | 47% 1217-1346 (2563) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $507.19 | $495 | +$0.2 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $245.56 | $495 | +$250.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $249.23 | — | -$250 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 67.6¢ | $315.92 | $311 | -$4.92 | 58% 4049-2979 (7028) |
BO bosona | Upavg 56.1¢ | $171.49 | $294.98 | +$123.49 | 51% 4983-4719 (9702) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 76.4¢ | $205.37 | $205.47 | +$0.1 | 55% 4661-3757 (8418) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 75.6¢ | $165.89 | $174 | +$8.11 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 96.8¢ | $144.28 | $149 | +$4.72 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 32.5¢ | $52.2 | $135 | +$82.8 | 44% 2484-3215 (5699) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $113.69 | $90.45 | +$2.76 | 58% 513-370 (883) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $21.3 | $65 | +$43.7 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.5¢ | $65.78 | — | -$65.78 | 49% 966-1024 (1990) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $56.22 | $60.45 | +$4.23 | 60% 4351-2951 (7302) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 85.9¢ | $55.2 | $55 | -$0.2 | 54% 1099-952 (2051) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $34.66 | $40.66 | +$6 | 52% 1719-1616 (3335) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $22.68 | $27.21 | +$4.53 | 39% 821-1310 (2131) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 62.2¢ | $10.32 | $16.6 | +$6.28 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $16.61 | — | -$16.61 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $15.22 | — | -$15.22 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $22.15 | $20 | +$14.25 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $16 | $50 | +$34 | 48% 2593-2832 (5425) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $16 | $50 | +$34 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $13.34 | $29 | +$15.66 | 50% 1010-1000 (2010) |
Invested
$1,499.04
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$28.28
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$1,300.67
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$98.58
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Invested
$803.54
Value
$771.57
PnL
-$31.97
Record
57%
5234-3877 (9111)
Invested
$522.54
Value
—
PnL
-$522.39
Record
47%
1217-1346 (2563)
Invested
$507.19
Value
$495
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
Invested
$315.92
Value
$311
PnL
-$4.92
Record
58%
4049-2979 (7028)
Invested
$171.49
Value
$294.98
PnL
+$123.49
Record
51%
4983-4719 (9702)
Invested
$205.37
Value
$205.47
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
4661-3757 (8418)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$165.89
Value
$174
PnL
+$8.11
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$144.28
Value
$149
PnL
+$4.72
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$52.2
Value
$135
PnL
+$82.8
Record
44%
2484-3215 (5699)
Invested
$113.69
Value
$90.45
PnL
+$2.76
Record
58%
513-370 (883)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$65
PnL
+$43.7
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
Invested
$65.78
Value
—
PnL
-$65.78
Record
49%
966-1024 (1990)
Invested
$56.22
Value
$60.45
PnL
+$4.23
Record
60%
4351-2951 (7302)
Invested
$55.2
Value
$55
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
1099-952 (2051)
Invested
$34.66
Value
$40.66
PnL
+$6
Record
52%
1719-1616 (3335)
Invested
$22.68
Value
$27.21
PnL
+$4.53
Record
39%
821-1310 (2131)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$16.6
PnL
+$6.28
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
Invested
$16.61
Value
—
PnL
-$16.61
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$15.22
Value
—
PnL
-$15.22
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)
Invested
$22.15
Value
$20
PnL
+$14.25
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
Invested
$16
Value
$50
PnL
+$34
Record
48%
2593-2832 (5425)
Invested
$16
Value
$50
PnL
+$34
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$13.34
Value
$29
PnL
+$15.66
Record
50%
1010-1000 (2010)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $1.4K
Hcrystallash
Up — $771.57
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $311
bosona
Up — $294.98
stepahead
Up — $205.47
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $174
MayorMamdani
Up — $149