Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$454.21

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 33 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,349

Combined PnL+$507.7

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares242

Combined PnL-$53.49

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 81.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$316.58	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$192.59	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15.92	98% 4630-97 (4727)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 68.2¢	$560.41	$603.23	+$42.82	57% 5226-3866 (9092)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 80.1¢	$505.52	$504.79	-$0.74	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$530.95	$487.8	+$4.62	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$244.63	$487.8	+$249.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$245.56	—	-$245.05
ST stepahead	Downavg 58.6¢	$330.04	$397.34	+$67.3	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 91¢	$393.71	$402	+$8.29	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 84.8¢	$354.09	$342.75	-$11.34	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.4¢	$311.31	$212	+$20.54	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Upavg 16.1¢	$193.02	$94.43	-$98.6	63% 1989-1161 (3150)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.1¢	$122.04	—	-$122.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.2¢	$70.99	$94.43	+$23.44
LI Little-big	Downavg 51.8¢	$103.6	$200	+$96.4	51% 1162-1108 (2270)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 92¢	$191.24	$200	+$8.76	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
AL Alpharo28	Downavg 48.8¢	$210.62	$186.7	+$52.25	58% 502-365 (867)
AL almach	Downavg 86¢	$152.6	$160.91	+$8.31	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
MO mo-money	Downavg 88¢	$156.03	$177.31	+$21.28	52% 1724-1594 (3318)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 82.4¢	$127.8	$135	+$7.2	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
BO bosona	Downavg 86¢	$112.6	$130.93	+$18.33	51% 4973-4711 (9684)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$77.03	$80	+$2.97	54% 1091-944 (2035)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$38.09	$47.68	+$9.59	49% 960-1012 (1972)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$29.29	$47.68	+$18.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.7¢	$8.8	—	-$8.8
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 93¢	$48	$51.61	+$3.61	46% 336-397 (733)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$48.39	$53.13	+$24.46	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 75¢	$73.8	$45	-$12.55	47% 2506-2778 (5284)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$45.14	$42.24	-$2.9	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 91.8¢	$35.61	$35.18	-$0.43	65% 2887-1573 (4460)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$1,413.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$316.58

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,651.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$192.59

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,210.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15.92

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$560.41

Value

$603.23

PnL

+$42.82

Record

57%

5226-3866 (9092)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$505.52

Value

$504.79

PnL

-$0.74

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$530.95

Value

$487.8

PnL

+$4.62

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$244.6350.1¢+$249.67

Up$245.5648.6¢-$245.05

stepahead

Down

Invested

$330.04

Value

$397.34

PnL

+$67.3

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$393.71

Value

$402

PnL

+$8.29

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$354.09

Value

$342.75

PnL

-$11.34

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$311.31

Value

$212

PnL

+$20.54

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

RLWGARB<$100

Invested

$193.02

Value

$94.43

PnL

-$98.6

Record

63%

1989-1161 (3150)

Both legs:

Up$122.0416.1¢-$122.04

Down$70.9975.2¢+$23.44

Little-big

Down

Invested

$103.6

Value

$200

PnL

+$96.4

Record

51%

1162-1108 (2270)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$191.24

Value

$200

PnL

+$8.76

Record

48%

2606-2865 (5471)

Alpharo28

Down

Invested

$210.62

Value

$186.7

PnL

+$52.25

Record

58%

502-365 (867)

almach

Down

Invested

$152.6

Value

$160.91

PnL

+$8.31

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$156.03

Value

$177.31

PnL

+$21.28

Record

52%

1724-1594 (3318)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$127.8

Value

$135

PnL

+$7.2

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

bosona

Down

Invested

$112.6

Value

$130.93

PnL

+$18.33

Record

51%

4973-4711 (9684)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$77.03

Value

$80

PnL

+$2.97

Record

54%

1091-944 (2035)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$38.09

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$9.59

Record

49%

960-1012 (1972)

Both legs:

Down$29.2961.4¢+$18.39

Up$8.814.7¢-$8.8

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$48

Value

$51.61

PnL

+$3.61

Record

46%

336-397 (733)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$48.39

Value

$53.13

PnL

+$24.46

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$73.8

Value

$45

PnL

-$12.55

Record

47%

2506-2778 (5284)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$45.14

Value

$42.24

PnL

-$2.9

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$35.61

Value

$35.18

PnL

-$0.43

Record

65%

2887-1573 (4460)

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 33 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xecfe980e...9b89e0

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794777300

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $1.6K

+$316.58

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $1.5K

-$192.59

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

+$15.92

Hcrystallash

Down — $603.23

+$42.82

CrouchPredictions

Down — $504.79

-$0.74

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$4.62

stepahead

Down — $397.34

+$67.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $402

+$8.29

asdcaxz

Down — $342.75

-$11.34

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $212

+$20.54

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