Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

28 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Up (68%) · Up at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$491.85

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

28 of 41 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares13,829

Combined PnL+$690.25

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,700

Combined PnL-$198.4

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 55.2¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$83.97	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$14.79	53% 1627-1417 (3044)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.37	98% 4560-95 (4655)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 48.3¢	$927.76	$1.0K	+$115.35	58% 5209-3849 (9058)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Upavg 87.9¢	$740.6	$838.4	+$97.79	46% 331-396 (727)
ST stepahead	Upavg 59.4¢	$526.76	$556.02	+$29.26	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$532.32	$496.61	+$9.94	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 55.5¢	$404.81	$485.85	+$81.03	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
RL RLWG	Upavg 50¢	$349.3	$394.25	+$44.95	63% 1984-1153 (3137)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$321.49	$323.12	+$1.62	51% 2213-2109 (4322)
MO mo-money	Upavg 70.1¢	$257.63	$304.38	+$46.74	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 63.3¢	$305.24	$294.42	-$6.12	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 54.1¢	$259.27	$288.52	+$113.47	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 50.8¢	$161.99	$160.12	-$1.88	49% 950-986 (1936)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$156.14	$158.82	+$2.67	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$71.42	$115.63	+$44.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$84.73	$43.19	-$41.54
BO bosona	Upavg 74.7¢	$139.33	$152.28	+$12.95	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
BoneOhio	Upavg 26.6¢	$39.85	$149.25	+$109.4	70% 1855-804 (2659)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77.4¢	$161.7	$144.63	-$10.47	52% 5211-4882 (10093)
AL almach	Upavg 61¢	$85.17	$129	+$43.83	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
LI Little-big	Upavg 54.7¢	$122.83	$115.33	-$7.5	52% 1151-1083 (2234)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 57.9¢	$167.96	$110.33	-$55.88	47% 2471-2739 (5210)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 66.7¢	$119.06	$109.74	-$9.32	66% 4016-2029 (6045)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 70¢	$124.63	$109.53	-$10.35	48% 2553-2774 (5327)
NIULAI4	Upavg 90.7¢	$96.19	$105.47	+$9.28	30% 602-1375 (1977)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 90.4¢	$67	$73.73	+$6.73	39% 94-144 (238)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,824.89

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$83.97

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,928.43

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$14.79

Record

53%

1627-1417 (3044)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,323.94

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.37

Record

98%

4560-95 (4655)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$927.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$115.35

Record

58%

5209-3849 (9058)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Invested

$740.6

Value

$838.4

PnL

+$97.79

Record

46%

331-396 (727)

stepahead

Invested

$526.76

Value

$556.02

PnL

+$29.26

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$532.32

Value

$496.61

PnL

+$9.94

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$404.81

Value

$485.85

PnL

+$81.03

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

RLWG

Invested

$349.3

Value

$394.25

PnL

+$44.95

Record

63%

1984-1153 (3137)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$321.49

Value

$323.12

PnL

+$1.62

Record

51%

2213-2109 (4322)

mo-money

Invested

$257.63

Value

$304.38

PnL

+$46.74

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

asdcaxz

Invested

$305.24

Value

$294.42

PnL

-$6.12

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$259.27

Value

$288.52

PnL

+$113.47

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Down

Invested

$161.99

Value

$160.12

PnL

-$1.88

Record

49%

950-986 (1936)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.14

Value

$158.82

PnL

+$2.67

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

Both legs:

Up$71.4245.4¢+$44.21

Down$84.7352¢-$41.54

bosona

Invested

$139.33

Value

$152.28

PnL

+$12.95

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

BoneOhio

Invested

$39.85

Value

$149.25

PnL

+$109.4

Record

70%

1855-804 (2659)

blue.birds

Invested

$161.7

Value

$144.63

PnL

-$10.47

Record

52%

5211-4882 (10093)

almach

Invested

$85.17

Value

$129

PnL

+$43.83

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

Little-big

Invested

$122.83

Value

$115.33

PnL

-$7.5

Record

52%

1151-1083 (2234)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$167.96

Value

$110.33

PnL

-$55.88

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

asdaefef

Invested

$119.06

Value

$109.74

PnL

-$9.32

Record

66%

4016-2029 (6045)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$124.63

Value

$109.53

PnL

-$10.35

Record

48%

2553-2774 (5327)

NIULAI4

Invested

$96.19

Value

$105.47

PnL

+$9.28

Record

30%

602-1375 (1977)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$67

Value

$73.73

PnL

+$6.73

Record

39%

94-144 (238)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

28 of 41 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.