Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 34 top traders (47%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,857

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Up16 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,896

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 55¢	$3.3K	—	$-3.3K	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 43.8¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$23.54	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.2¢	$951.01	—	-$951.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$974.55
HC HcrystallashCTR	Downavg 49.6¢	$756.78	—	-$756.78	58% 5191-3834 (9025)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$806.79	$847.87	+$41.07	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$407.47	—	-$407.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$399.33	$847.87	+$448.54
RL RLWG	Upavg 37.7¢	$1.0K	$2.6K	+$1.6K	63% 1977-1149 (3126)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$532.32	$494.43	+$16.92	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$240.12	—	-$236.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$243.23	$494.43	+$253.56
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 77.4¢	$434.73	—	-$434.73	58% 4006-2920 (6926)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$329.96	$663.17	+$333.36	45% 325-395 (720)
└ Down leg	Downavg 1.2¢	$3.32	—	-$3.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$326.46	$663.17	+$336.71
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.8	53% 1595-1405 (3000)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.43	98% 4498-92 (4590)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$237.68	$249.27	+$19.51	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$139.23	—	-$139.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$95.39	$249.27	+$158.74
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 33¢	$120.7	$174	+$133.82	65% 97-52 (149)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$286.81	$369.75	+$140.66	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.4¢	$150.22	—	-$144.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 23¢	$84.98	$369.75	+$284.77
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Downavg 54.7¢	$193.35	—	-$193.35	44% 2407-3121 (5528)
AA aaa221CTR	Downavg 54¢	$153.93	—	-$127.54	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
AL Alpharo28CTR	Downavg 71.7¢	$293.95	—	-$249.77	58% 463-342 (805)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 77.9¢	$476.97	$612	+$135.02	42% 2086-2846 (4932)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 36.8¢	$61.27	$127.91	+$75.31	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.7¢	$5.96	—	-$1.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$47.1	$127.91	+$76.66
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 59.9¢	$119.94	—	-$119.94	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$91.12	—	-$91.12	70% 1831-785 (2616)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$94.51	$109.53	+$15.02	48% 2518-2730 (5248)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$60.19	—	-$60.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$34.31	$109.53	+$75.22
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 42.1¢	$92.18	—	-$88.68	48% 2440-2688 (5128)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$91.66	$154.71	+$63.05	29% 333-801 (1134)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.1¢	$14.79	—	-$14.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$76.87	$154.71	+$77.84
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$181.25	$243.72	+$63.07	39% 89-142 (231)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$171	$243.72	+$72.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.8¢	$7.06	—	-$9.65

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$3,300.14

Value

—

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,147.7

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$2,142.59

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$23.54

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

Both legs:

Down$951.0181.2¢-$951.01

Up$1,099.2551.6¢+$974.55

HcrystallashCTR

Down

Invested

$756.78

Value

—

PnL

-$756.78

Record

58%

5191-3834 (9025)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$806.79

Value

$847.87

PnL

+$41.07

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

Both legs:

Down$407.4742.8¢-$407.47

Up$399.3347.1¢+$448.54

RLWG

Invested

$1,026.73

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

63%

1977-1149 (3126)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$532.32

Value

$494.43

PnL

+$16.92

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$240.1249.8¢-$236.64

Up$243.2349.2¢+$253.56

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$434.73

Value

—

PnL

-$434.73

Record

58%

4006-2920 (6926)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972ARB<$100

Invested

$329.96

Value

$663.17

PnL

+$333.36

Record

45%

325-395 (720)

Both legs:

Down$3.321.2¢-$3.35

Up$326.4649.2¢+$336.71

0x50f7

Invested

$1,366.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.8

Record

53%

1595-1405 (3000)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,329.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.43

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$237.68

Value

$249.27

PnL

+$19.51

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

Both legs:

Down$139.2352.4¢-$139.23

Up$95.3938.3¢+$158.74

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$120.7

Value

$174

PnL

+$133.82

Record

65%

97-52 (149)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$286.81

Value

$369.75

PnL

+$140.66

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

Both legs:

Down$150.2274.4¢-$144.11

Up$84.9823¢+$284.77

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Down

Invested

$193.35

Value

—

PnL

-$193.35

Record

44%

2407-3121 (5528)

aaa221CTR

Down

Invested

$153.93

Value

—

PnL

-$127.54

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

Alpharo28CTR

Down

Invested

$293.95

Value

—

PnL

-$249.77

Record

58%

463-342 (805)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$476.97

Value

$612

PnL

+$135.02

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$61.27

Value

$127.91

PnL

+$75.31

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

Both legs:

Invested

$119.94

Value

—

PnL

-$119.94

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$91.12

Value

—

PnL

-$91.12

Record

70%

1831-785 (2616)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.51

Value

$109.53

PnL

+$15.02

Record

48%

2518-2730 (5248)

Both legs:

Down$60.1949.8¢-$60.19

Up$34.3131.3¢+$75.22

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$92.18

Value

—

PnL

-$88.68

Record

48%

2440-2688 (5128)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$91.66

Value

$154.71

PnL

+$63.05

Record

29%

333-801 (1134)

Both legs:

Down$14.7922.1¢-$14.79

Up$76.8749.7¢+$77.84

asabovesobelow2ARB<$100

Invested

$181.25

Value

$243.72

PnL

+$63.07

Record

39%

89-142 (231)

Both legs:

Up$17170.2¢+$72.72

Down$7.0621.8¢-$9.65

Smart Money Signal

16 of 34 top traders (47%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x557b1639...edfa59

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794760200

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

Hcrystallash

Down — $0

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Up — $2.6K

+$1.6K

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$16.92

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

CTR

Down — $0

-$434.73

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$333.36

0x50f7

Up — $1.4K

+$13.8

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