Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.6K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 41 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$48.9K

Total Shares48,942

Combined PnL+$8.5K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,463

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118	Downavg 49.8¢	$8.4K	$14.9K	+$6.5K	51% 26-25 (51)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$10.47	53% 1576-1397 (2973)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 93.7¢	$6.1K	$3.6K	$-2.4K	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 72.1¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$776.06	65% 95-51 (146)
RL RLWG	Downavg 49.2¢	$2.5K	$5.1K	+$2.5K	63% 1971-1144 (3115)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 74.8¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$530.26	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$4.14	51% 2151-2062 (4213)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 95.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$72.72	98% 4434-91 (4525)
PL ply-pm4	Downavg 52.5¢	$902.16	$1.5K	+$649.82	37% 248-431 (679)
Atomforge	Downavg 68.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$111.18	29% 325-793 (1118)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$1.1K	$898.71	-$181.66	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$754.33	—	-$754.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$326.05	$898.71	+$572.67
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 76.8¢	$802.5	$1.0K	+$241.94	38% 88-141 (229)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.1¢	$1.2K	$947.33	-$241.93	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 63.9¢	$814.68	$901.08	+$101.43	58% 5174-3818 (8992)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$2.1K	$643.73	$-1.0K	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
└ Down leg	Downavg 94¢	$605.11	$643.73	+$123.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972	Downavg 45.1¢	$724.19	$1.1K	+$352.55	45% 321-391 (712)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$550.43	$480.27	-$10.36	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$259.71	—	-$254.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$235	$480.27	+$243.94
BL blue.birds	Downavg 62.4¢	$411.96	$444.87	+$37.71	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$970.19	$264	-$706.19	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 94¢	$248.16	$264	+$15.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$722.03	—	-$722.03
NIULAI4	Downavg 94.6¢	$364.17	$385	+$20.83	30% 579-1350 (1929)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$978.21	$146.25	-$818.03	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$891.31	—	-$890.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$76.16	$146.25	+$72.23
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$474.34	$239	+$11.83	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$86.08	$239	+$186.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$148.28	—	-$174.65
Bossgirl	Downavg 65.7¢	$131.43	$200	+$68.57	58% 98-70 (168)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$184.58	—	-$184.58	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 47.9¢	$82.23	$155.15	+$72.91	62% 143-86 (229)

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down

Invested

$8,424.7

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

51%

26-25 (51)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$7,477.9

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$10.47

Record

53%

1576-1397 (2973)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$6,143.32

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$2,095.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$776.06

Record

65%

95-51 (146)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$2,543.24

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

63%

1971-1144 (3115)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$3,102.9

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$530.26

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,152.69

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$4.14

Record

51%

2151-2062 (4213)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,483.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$72.72

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

ply-pm4

Down

Invested

$902.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$649.82

Record

37%

248-431 (679)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,313.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$111.18

Record

29%

325-793 (1118)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$1,080.37

Value

$898.71

PnL

-$181.66

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

Both legs:

Up$754.3355.1¢-$754.33

Down$326.0536.3¢+$572.67

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$802.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$241.94

Record

38%

88-141 (229)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,191.32

Value

$947.33

PnL

-$241.93

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$814.68

Value

$901.08

PnL

+$101.43

Record

58%

5174-3818 (8992)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$2,114.55

Value

$643.73

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

Both legs:

Down$605.1194¢+$123.96

Up$1,137.2249.7¢$-1.1K

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972

Down

Invested

$724.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$352.55

Record

45%

321-391 (712)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$550.43

Value

$480.27

PnL

-$10.36

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Up$259.7149.9¢-$254.3

Down$23548.9¢+$243.94

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$411.96

Value

$444.87

PnL

+$37.71

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$970.19

Value

$264

PnL

-$706.19

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

Both legs:

Down$248.1694¢+$15.84

Up$722.0350.2¢-$722.03

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$364.17

Value

$385

PnL

+$20.83

Record

30%

579-1350 (1929)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$978.21

Value

$146.25

PnL

-$818.03

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

Both legs:

Up$891.3149.8¢-$890.26

Down$76.1652.1¢+$72.23

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$474.34

Value

$239

PnL

+$11.83

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

Both legs:

Down$86.0836¢+$186.48

Up$148.2862¢-$174.65

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$131.43

Value

$200

PnL

+$68.57

Record

58%

98-70 (168)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$184.58

Value

—

PnL

-$184.58

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$82.23

Value

$155.15

PnL

+$72.91

Record

62%

143-86 (229)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 41 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa9602360...6aa994

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1794755700

Traders in this Market

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down — $14.9K

+$6.5K

0x50f7

Down — $7.5K

+$10.47

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $3.6K

$-2.4K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $2.8K

+$776.06

RLWG

Down — $5.1K

+$2.5K

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $2.4K

-$530.26

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.1K

-$4.14

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$72.72

ply-pm4

Down — $1.5K

+$649.82

Atomforge

Down — $1.4K

+$111.18

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