Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 61%
3 arb excluded
$4.2K
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 28 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$16.23 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Upavg 97.5¢ | $745.5 | $731.3 | -$14.2 | 45% 321-391 (712) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $504.6 | $490 | -$9.2 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $254.6 | — | -$254.6 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 89.5¢ | $760.92 | $411.24 | -$57.1 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $166.94 | $317.46 | +$150.52 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 35.1¢ | $230.6 | $160.21 | -$70.39 | 55% 4601-3705 (8306) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.1¢ | $109.13 | $160.21 | +$51.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.1¢ | $121.47 | — | -$121.47 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 36.5¢ | $324.23 | — | -$324.23 | 52% 1650-1545 (3195) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 37.3¢ | $264.67 | — | -$264.67 | 51% 1638-1554 (3192) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 41.3¢ | $175 | — | -$175 | 47% 1165-1288 (2453) |
BO bosona | Upavg 98¢ | $442.32 | $83.22 | -$96.83 | 51% 4890-4670 (9560) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 90¢ | $100.74 | $80 | -$20.74 | 49% 932-964 (1896) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $103.3 | $80 | -$23.3 | 58% 449-327 (776) |
HC HcrystallashARB<$100 | Downavg 30.4¢ | $251.52 | $50 | -$201.52 | 58% 5174-3818 (8992) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $50 | +$7.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.4¢ | $209.02 | — | -$209.02 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 92.2¢ | $67.15 | $70 | +$2.85 | 53% 1026-913 (1939) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $90.19 | $68.72 | -$17.31 | 60% 4192-2848 (7040) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $27.9 | $45 | +$17.1 | 58% 3986-2906 (6892) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $25.2 | $35 | +$9.8 | 48% 2509-2762 (5271) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $27.51 | $29.99 | +$2.48 | 52% 5172-4852 (10024) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $14.8 | $15.27 | +$0.47 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $16.2 | — | -$16.2 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.4¢ | $13.98 | — | -$13.98 | 50% 955-949 (1904) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $12.2 | $10 | -$2.2 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $10.66 | $13 | +$2.34 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $13.93 | — | -$13.93 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
Invested
$1,506.31
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$16.23
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$745.5
Value
$731.3
PnL
-$14.2
Record
45%
321-391 (712)
Invested
$504.6
Value
$490
PnL
-$9.2
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$760.92
Value
$411.24
PnL
-$57.1
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$166.94
Value
$317.46
PnL
+$150.52
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$230.6
Value
$160.21
PnL
-$70.39
Record
55%
4601-3705 (8306)
Both legs:
Invested
$324.23
Value
—
PnL
-$324.23
Record
52%
1650-1545 (3195)
Invested
$264.67
Value
—
PnL
-$264.67
Record
51%
1638-1554 (3192)
Invested
$175
Value
—
PnL
-$175
Record
47%
1165-1288 (2453)
Invested
$442.32
Value
$83.22
PnL
-$96.83
Record
51%
4890-4670 (9560)
Invested
$100.74
Value
$80
PnL
-$20.74
Record
49%
932-964 (1896)
Invested
$103.3
Value
$80
PnL
-$23.3
Record
58%
449-327 (776)
Invested
$251.52
Value
$50
PnL
-$201.52
Record
58%
5174-3818 (8992)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.15
Value
$70
PnL
+$2.85
Record
53%
1026-913 (1939)
Invested
$90.19
Value
$68.72
PnL
-$17.31
Record
60%
4192-2848 (7040)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$45
PnL
+$17.1
Record
58%
3986-2906 (6892)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$35
PnL
+$9.8
Record
48%
2509-2762 (5271)
Invested
$27.51
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$2.48
Record
52%
5172-4852 (10024)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$15.27
PnL
+$0.47
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$16.2
Value
—
PnL
-$16.2
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
Invested
$13.98
Value
—
PnL
-$13.98
Record
50%
955-949 (1904)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$2.2
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.66
Value
$13
PnL
+$2.34
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.93
Value
—
PnL
-$13.93
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972
Up — $731.3
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $411.24
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $317.46
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
almach
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $83.22