Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

23 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Down (72%) · Down at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up5¢Down95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$327.27

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 95.5¢

+8% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 32 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up5%

Down96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,024

Combined PnL-$297.03

Up9 traders

Total Value$132.95

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$30.23

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$929.88	$901.93	-$27.95	98% 4362-90 (4452)
MO mo-money	Downavg 94.6¢	$582.78	$500	-$82.78	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$507.9	$497.1	+$2.7	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$244.9	$316.05	+$74.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$253	$181.05	-$71.95
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 71¢	$343.14	$345.49	+$2.35	58% 3966-2891 (6857)
AL almach	Downavg 95.6¢	$368.09	$343.5	-$24.59	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 94.3¢	$437.3	$320.37	-$116.93	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 80¢	$307	$260.15	-$46.53	58% 5157-3805 (8962)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 90.2¢	$224.7	$240.29	+$15.58	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
ST stepahead	Downavg 70.8¢	$153.48	$153.68	+$0.2	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.9¢	$134.3	$137.75	+$3.45	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 94.8¢	$123.08	$124.35	+$1.27	53% 1008-899 (1907)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 81¢	$145.95	$121.79	+$4.94	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
BO bosona	Downavg 96¢	$120.98	$101.4	-$19.59	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$63.73	$54.29	-$9.44	48% 2373-2615 (4988)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100	Downavg 95¢	$49	$48.74	-$0.26	45% 318-390 (708)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$37.5	$47.25	+$9.75	70% 1783-757 (2540)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$46.43	$46.36	-$0.07	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94¢	$41.36	$42.02	+$0.66	52% 2972-2710 (5682)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$57.26	$39.86	-$17.41	48% 2455-2651 (5106)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$30.7	$37.62	+$8.29	67% 3861-1939 (5800)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$35.07	$26.34	+$16.18	62% 4514-2735 (7249)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$22.06	$22.73	+$0.68	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Downavg 96¢	$36.24	$21.18	-$15.06	57% 429-318 (747)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 94¢	$27.75	$20.58	-$7.17	49% 923-952 (1875)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$13.57	$13.17	-$0.4	50% 940-932 (1872)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$929.88

Value

$901.93

PnL

-$27.95

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$582.78

Value

$500

PnL

-$82.78

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.9

Value

$497.1

PnL

+$2.7

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Down$244.950¢+$74.65

Up$25349.6¢-$71.95

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$343.14

Value

$345.49

PnL

+$2.35

Record

58%

3966-2891 (6857)

almach

Down

Invested

$368.09

Value

$343.5

PnL

-$24.59

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$437.3

Value

$320.37

PnL

-$116.93

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$307

Value

$260.15

PnL

-$46.53

Record

58%

5157-3805 (8962)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$224.7

Value

$240.29

PnL

+$15.58

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$153.48

Value

$153.68

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$134.3

Value

$137.75

PnL

+$3.45

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$123.08

Value

$124.35

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

1008-899 (1907)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$145.95

Value

$121.79

PnL

+$4.94

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

bosona

Down

Invested

$120.98

Value

$101.4

PnL

-$19.59

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$63.73

Value

$54.29

PnL

-$9.44

Record

48%

2373-2615 (4988)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100

Down

Invested

$49

Value

$48.74

PnL

-$0.26

Record

45%

318-390 (708)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$9.75

Record

70%

1783-757 (2540)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$46.43

Value

$46.36

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$41.36

Value

$42.02

PnL

+$0.66

Record

52%

2972-2710 (5682)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$57.26

Value

$39.86

PnL

-$17.41

Record

48%

2455-2651 (5106)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$30.7

Value

$37.62

PnL

+$8.29

Record

67%

3861-1939 (5800)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$35.07

Value

$26.34

PnL

+$16.18

Record

62%

4514-2735 (7249)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$22.06

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$0.68

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

Alpharo28<$100

Down

Invested

$36.24

Value

$21.18

PnL

-$15.06

Record

57%

429-318 (747)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$27.75

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$7.17

Record

49%

923-952 (1875)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$13.57

Value

$13.17

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

940-932 (1872)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 32 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.