Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 66%
1 arb excluded
$8.4K
-$507.65
Smart Money Signal
21 of 32 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 63.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.9K | +$580.99 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 90.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$118.27 | 58% 3966-2891 (6857) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 68.6¢ | $805.42 | $689.96 | -$115.46 | 58% 5157-3805 (8962) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $524.36 | $496.99 | -$0.11 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $247.89 | $496.99 | +$250.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.7¢ | $249.19 | — | -$251.05 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 36.7¢ | $556.43 | — | -$556.43 | 48% 1151-1270 (2421) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 55.8¢ | $293.31 | $280.97 | -$4.75 | 55% 4579-3695 (8274) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $261.63 | $264.27 | +$2.64 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 83.6¢ | $218.11 | $215.95 | -$2.16 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
AL almach | Upavg 62¢ | $241.82 | $207.76 | -$34.06 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 37¢ | $155.66 | — | -$155.66 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
DV dvasdkasodk | Upavg 98.9¢ | $117.79 | $114 | -$3.79 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.6¢ | $106.38 | $93.33 | -$13.05 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $89.98 | $87.15 | -$2.83 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Downavg 33.4¢ | $125.22 | — | -$125.22 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.3¢ | $66.75 | — | -$66.75 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $55.84 | $56 | +$0.16 | 53% 1008-899 (1907) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $77.96 | $46.16 | +$1.67 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $48.65 | $49 | +$0.35 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 23¢ | $346.67 | — | -$58.16 | 51% 4872-4649 (9521) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Upavg 68.3¢ | $43.8 | $48 | +$12.6 | 57% 429-318 (747) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 92.7¢ | $37.86 | $34.26 | -$3.55 | 65% 2731-1490 (4221) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $46.08 | — | -$46.08 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $23.52 | $24 | +$0.48 | 30% 572-1335 (1907) |
Invested
$1,980
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$1,320.54
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$580.99
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$1,501.65
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$118.27
Record
58%
3966-2891 (6857)
Invested
$805.42
Value
$689.96
PnL
-$115.46
Record
58%
5157-3805 (8962)
Invested
$524.36
Value
$496.99
PnL
-$0.11
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$556.43
Value
—
PnL
-$556.43
Record
48%
1151-1270 (2421)
Invested
$293.31
Value
$280.97
PnL
-$4.75
Record
55%
4579-3695 (8274)
Invested
$261.63
Value
$264.27
PnL
+$2.64
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$218.11
Value
$215.95
PnL
-$2.16
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$241.82
Value
$207.76
PnL
-$34.06
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
Invested
$155.66
Value
—
PnL
-$155.66
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
Invested
$117.79
Value
$114
PnL
-$3.79
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$100
Value
$100
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$106.38
Value
$93.33
PnL
-$13.05
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Invested
$89.98
Value
$87.15
PnL
-$2.83
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$125.22
Value
—
PnL
-$125.22
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
Invested
$66.75
Value
—
PnL
-$66.75
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
Invested
$55.84
Value
$56
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
1008-899 (1907)
Invested
$77.96
Value
$46.16
PnL
+$1.67
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$48.65
Value
$49
PnL
+$0.35
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
Invested
$346.67
Value
—
PnL
-$58.16
Record
51%
4872-4649 (9521)
Invested
$43.8
Value
$48
PnL
+$12.6
Record
57%
429-318 (747)
Invested
$37.86
Value
$34.26
PnL
-$3.55
Record
65%
2731-1490 (4221)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$46.08
Value
—
PnL
-$46.08
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$23.52
Value
$24
PnL
+$0.48
Record
30%
572-1335 (1907)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.0K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.9K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $1.6K
Hcrystallash
Up — $689.96
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $280.97
hoodquant
Up — $264.27
asdcaxz
Up — $215.95
almach
Up — $207.76