Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (95%) · Up at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up57¢Down43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 95%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$33.51

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 57.5¢

-6% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up57%

Down43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,375

Combined PnL+$33.42

Down1 trader

Total Value$2.43

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.09

Up — 95%Down — 5%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$987.39	$872.46	-$99.03	49% 3541-3613 (7154)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.9¢	$647.12	$575.39	-$75.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$320.2	$297.07	-$23.13
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 33.9¢	$338.54	$412.89	+$83.55	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$199.01	$237.87	+$41.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$132.75	$175.02	+$42.27
MO mo-money	Upavg 65¢	$325	$327.5	+$2.5	52% 1616-1518 (3134)
AL almach	Upavg 65¢	$325	$327.5	+$2.5	51% 1612-1521 (3133)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$178.47	$198.45	+$19.98	58% 5145-3799 (8944)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$106.44	$112.91	+$6.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$72.03	$85.55	+$13.51
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 59.9¢	$160.11	$163.5	+$3.39	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
AA aaa221	Upavg 65¢	$136.46	$136.77	+$0.31	60% 4116-2795 (6911)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$67.86	$79.27	+$11.42	51% 4861-4639 (9500)
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$50.85	$49.5	-$1.35	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$40.39	$36.75	-$3.64	49% 917-951 (1868)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$24.6	$36.24	+$11.64	51% 1099-1042 (2141)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$31.55	$33.06	+$1.51	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$31.2	$31.71	+$0.51	58% 3957-2883 (6840)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 65¢	$16.25	$16.38	+$0.13	48% 2459-2704 (5163)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$14.96	$16.11	+$1.14	36% 1451-2565 (4016)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 72¢	$14.4	$15.3	+$0.9	57% 420-312 (732)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$14	$15.14	+$1.14	62% 4490-2713 (7203)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$8.62	$8.31	-$0.31	67% 3836-1923 (5759)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 55¢	$5.5	$6.55	+$1.05	44% 2338-3018 (5356)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$4.8	$5.05	+$0.25	50% 933-923 (1856)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 60¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.2	50% 2738-2731 (5469)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 72¢	$3.82	$3.95	+$0.13	52% 2955-2690 (5645)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$2.34	$2.43	+$0.09	42% 1993-2712 (4705)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$987.39

Value

$872.46

PnL

-$99.03

Record

49%

3541-3613 (7154)

Both legs:

Up$647.1266.9¢-$75.9

Down$320.243.7¢-$23.13

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$338.54

Value

$412.89

PnL

+$83.55

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

Both legs:

Down$199.0133.9¢+$41.28

Up$132.7545.1¢+$42.27

mo-money

Invested

$325

Value

$327.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

52%

1616-1518 (3134)

almach

Invested

$325

Value

$327.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

51%

1612-1521 (3133)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$178.47

Value

$198.45

PnL

+$19.98

Record

58%

5145-3799 (8944)

Both legs:

Up$106.4456.1¢+$6.47

Down$72.0334.1¢+$13.51

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$160.11

Value

$163.5

PnL

+$3.39

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

aaa221

Invested

$136.46

Value

$136.77

PnL

+$0.31

Record

60%

4116-2795 (6911)

bosona<$100

Invested

$67.86

Value

$79.27

PnL

+$11.42

Record

51%

4861-4639 (9500)

stepahead<$100

Invested

$50.85

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$1.35

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$40.39

Value

$36.75

PnL

-$3.64

Record

49%

917-951 (1868)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$36.24

PnL

+$11.64

Record

51%

1099-1042 (2141)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$31.55

Value

$33.06

PnL

+$1.51

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$31.2

Value

$31.71

PnL

+$0.51

Record

58%

3957-2883 (6840)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$16.25

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2459-2704 (5163)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.96

Value

$16.11

PnL

+$1.14

Record

36%

1451-2565 (4016)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

57%

420-312 (732)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$15.14

PnL

+$1.14

Record

62%

4490-2713 (7203)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$8.62

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$0.31

Record

67%

3836-1923 (5759)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$1.05

Record

44%

2338-3018 (5356)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

933-923 (1856)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

2738-2731 (5469)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

2955-2690 (5645)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.09

Record

42%

1993-2712 (4705)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.